Change My Mind
Dear Paul and Kate, Melanie and Jared Wright, Bridget, Ben and Sarah, Sara, Heather and Nate Pace, Audrey, Rachel, and Matt via hardcopy,
cc: file, Tony Hafen, Pauline Nelson via mail,
Sara and Des Penny, Claude and Katherine Warner, Lloyd and Luana
Warner, Diane Cluff, Maxine Shirts via mail.
Welcome to "Thoughtlets." This is a weekly review of an idea,
belief, thought, or words that will hopefully be of some benefit
to you, my children, with an electronic copy to on-line extended
family members. Any of you can ask me not to clutter your mail
box at any time.
"Although it has been said of me I will never change my mind, I have
always reserve the right to change my mind. This has been one of
those weeks when I have had the opportunity to do so on several
different occassions.
Melanie and Andrea, I apologize for not listening to the two of you
when you told me the newsletter idea wouldn't fly. I feel strongly
it is important to document the ideas we have worked on over the
last few decades, and I was encouraged by a Vice-President at
Exxon-Mobil Upstream Research and a Corporate Officer at Shell Oil,
and started to believe my own stuff. However, I sent a copy of
the first edition of the Walden 3-D Journal to 44 of my closest and
most trusted friends, and when the response from those who wrote
back was unanimous in the negative, I decided I needed to change my
mind. It is hard to eat crow and admit I was wrong (especially
when I still believe this is an important contribution to society).
So I figure the best way to proceed is to share parts of three of
the most direct responses, and the ones which had the most impact
in helping me to change my mind.
The first to respond was Tracy Stark, a geophysicist I first met
when I gave a talk at the University of Texas at Austin back when
I worked for Landmark Graphics, and who became a good friend when
he worked at Exxon Research. We did a couple of SEG Research
Workshops together during the late 1980's. He was one of the
participants in the Walden 3-D Lynk teleconference on 18 Dec 1990.
When Tracy left Exxon, I got him a non-paying job with Bowen
Loftin at the University of Houston, and helped him work out an
intellectual property agreement with Arco so he could develop
interpretation software and still work for Arco. Ben and Sarah
met Tracy and Laura when we went to dinner together in Dallas.
They have a baby girl named Veronica, a few weeks older than
Ethan. Among other things Tracy wrote:
<![CDATA[ `A critical review
Roice,
I have attached an edited version of your W3D Journal article.
I have been critical as requested. You might want to get a
root beer, take a dip in the pool, or maybe have a hot chocolate
before reading it.
A few "nits" to start out with. 1) In your e-mail I think you
misspelled backbone (Bacbone(SM) - but maybe this is a new -let).
2) The files you imply that can be found at
http://www.walden3d.com/network are not readily available - If
there are links to these documents on this page, I could not find
them. 3) If you are serious about it being confidential you
should not send it out under a mass mailing as you did. If you
sent it to me at Arco I am suppose to send it right back to
you without reading it. Others might think that you are not
serious about the confidentiality, and therefore other things
that you send or provide to them are not really confidential.
In reading what you are trying to do I keep remembering one of
your comments.
"I never thought of giving it away" Roice Nelson to Tracy Stark
concerning the differential success of Netscape and HyperMedia
Exchange shortly after Netscape went public.
I don't know if this applies in this case - but new newsletters
or journals normally give several issues out for free to get
people hooked. Most start out at a low cost and then slowly
raise their price instead of lowering them because of a large
number of subscribers. If you can get a large number of
subscribers at a large price - it must be priced correctly.
Who is your target audience? Those that make ~$110k/year? For
most geophysicists, I think that $1200/year is too high -
Geophysics and the Leading Edge only cost $70/year and it
appears as if the total information content is much higher in
these journals than in yours. You are claiming to provide
confidential information that others will not have - but is
this information that a practicing geophysicist (or other
consultant) will be able to use today, or are they still things
that are under development? You need to work hard on what
value someone will get out of your Journal. Right now I don't
think I could get $300 worth of information from the next 10
issues. (Particularly given my uncertain future economic
situation.) What am I missing?
From your side I see that you will need to have probably
150-200 subscribers (180k -240k/year) to make this an
economically sound venture if it is your main source of
income (which I doubt).
You are doing this electronically. Netscape and others
have, unfortunately for you, created an environment in
which most people think that information content from
the web should be free. You get free downloads. There
are free newsgroups and free list servers. While at
Arco I had access to an electronic newsletter that was
put out periodically. Arco paid for the service. I
went to the site once or twice - but found little value
in it. It is not something that I would have paid for.
Maybe you should consider doing a "Shareware Journal"
(did I just coin a new phrase?) Drop the confidential
notice, keep the copyright. Send it to who ever wants
it. If they find value in what they have read they will
then send you some money for that issue or hire you to
do some work for them. If someone is on your mailing
list for a year and they never send any money, hire your,
or contribute ideas - drop them from the list. I think
you should consider the Journal as a marketing tool for
Walden 3D or the NetWork-of-Minds not a source of income.
My opinion.
On the NetWork-of-Minds (NoM), I have a few comments /
questions. I don't think that it is a good idea to limit
your clients to only those who subscribe to your journal.
Maybe give those that subscribe a discount on services.
I was surprised by a few things I found on your
../network/index.html page. "..the NetWork does not
believe fairness is a principle.", and "To not taking
unreasonable advantage of a fellow member of the NetWork."
So the NetWork is a group that practices discrimination
and does consider itself an "equal opportunity employer".
Is this legal? It is clearly "Politically Incorrect".
Furthermore it condones members taking advantage of other
members, so long as they do not do it "unreasonably",
what ever that means.
The detail you want in the resume is too much. Most
people have not captured that information, and probably
most clients would not want the lat-long of their projects
published on a web site.
The pay structure looks like an Avon pyramid scheme - I
don't know about giving up 20% of my consulting fee - I
guess if I am satisfied with the 80% it would be ok.
Bringing in 6 people will effectively let me retire so
long as they are working - not bad.
I could not accept Note 1 - If I join the NetWork I can
only do projects that the NetWork doles out to me? - And
the NetWork does not claim to be fair and is willing to
take advantage of me? I don't think so!
As far as the advertisement - how does one "apply in
person" when all that is provide is an email address?
Anyone who can do that does not need a teacher!
I have probably said more than enough for now.
Tracy']]>
I responded to all of his points, and if anyone expresses any
interest I will include the rebuttal. The point, particularly
for Melanie and Andrea, is I do change my mind, specifically
when there is a good solid argument made that I should. In
another e-mail Tracy wrote:
<![CDATA[ `Roice,
Veronica says hello - she is on my lap "helping" me write
this. She keeps pushing the computer away with her feet.
Always something new.
I have a few comments on your subscription agreement.
First, I expect that you will not get even one large
company to sign this agreement as it is written.
Second, I could not find the value for the Receiving Party
in signing this agreement. The only thing that I could see
which could be potentially constructive to a receiver is
section 4 which is a vague potential of mutual development.
In your first journal you state that "The Receiving Party
is free to use Information in the W3D Journal for Internal
Projects, as long as the Information is treated the same as
if it were Internal Proprietary Information." I cannot see
where this right is given someone who signs your
subscription agreement.
Third, why do you have clause 6.C.ii? It seems strange to
me that a receiving party should have to give information
from your journal to any of these agencies. In this same
section you should require a Receiver to give you at least
5 business days, maybe even 10, prior to making any
disclosure. You should have the right to attempt their
disclosure.
Fourth, in section 7 you spelled "such" as "sucn".
Fifth, I believe that in section 9 you mean to say
"...shall terminate on the first to occur of:", instead of
"...shall terminate on the latter to occur of:". As
written, until you give notice that the obligations of
confidentiality have expired, they have not. (This is the
reason I said no large companies would sign it as written.)
Sixth, how would I be able to use the information contained
in your journal if I were to be the Editor's, editor? I
expect to have a small interpretation/visualization service
company. I will be developing some software for in house
use, and some to market or place in other products such as
VoxelGeo, GeoProbe, and CoRe Explorer. Would I be able to
use what I learn from the Journal to help build the
software that I sell?
Tracy
P.S. I worked on your journal again. Attached are my
comments. It is a word file let me know if you can read it.']]>
I am attaching these extended e-mails to show by example the
value of networking, of getting and listening to the opinions
of other people when you are in a situation where I need to
swallow my pride and change my mind. Specifically there is
tremendous value in having friends whom you have helped, and
who know you will help them in the future, and who you can
call on for advise when you are looking to make a major
change in your life.
Todd Staheli has been a good friend ever since his first
night as Varsity Scout Coach when Ben and Paul were showing
off for the Norwegian girl across the street while playing
football in his front yard, hit heads and both ended up in
the emergency room in Katy with totally bloodied T-shirts
and several stitches in their heads. In fact, Andrea,
Rachel, Matt, and I watched the last session of Conference
at their house and had a wonderful dinner with them Sunday
evening. This was why I didn't get this week's Thoughtlet
finished on Sunday. (Besides the fact Rachel and I watched
the Mummy when we got home.) Todd's e-mail mirrored Tracy's:
<![CDATA[ `Roice,
I have been thinking of you for some time now and have felt
the need to share a meal and some hours of reflective,
mind-extending time. Can I make a couple of suggestions
regarding a time (you decide or propose something else):
* Sunday afternoon for the 2nd session of conference at our
house to be followed by dinner
* October 13th or 14th (Friday or Saturday) for dinner
either home
* Lets meet the ExxonMobil person over lunch sometime.
These dinners are too infrequent and to enjoyable for
distractions.
I'm at a loss for words regarding Continuum. Tell me more
over dinner. I've never gone through the process of
building something and then watching as it is taken away
(rightly or wrongly). Since I have trouble classifying you
(though I don't feel the need to) I wonder if this isn't a
presentation/packaging issue? Just a thought.
I have also spent about 2 hours going over the materials
you referenced in your note. First, I respect and will
honor the confidentiality commits associated with this
material, now and always.
Second, you asked for some comments on the Journal.
Who is your audience? From a professional perspective, I
know of no one other than H. Roice Nelson, Jr. I who is
interested in the range of topics you plan to address. The
writing assumes that the reader has a very advanced
understanding of concepts and ideas which I am fairly
certain is not that widespread (what I mean to say is that
I could not understand much of what was written, but I felt
that if I found 3-4 smart people from across my field of
friends and resources, between us we might be able to sort
through the article). Roice, there is such range, depth
and assumed knowledge latent in the article that I am
concerned that (1) either your target audience is too small,
or (2) when you connect with someone in a corporate
environment who is interested that will have difficulty
explaining and justifying the subscription.
The Journal feels a bit like a subscription to an "open
topic consultation agreement". And while I might like it,
I would probably have a difficult time justifying it or
categorizing it for the minions of accountants and
bureaucrats which infest the process of business and
corporate life (a bit melodramatic, I admit, but you get
the drift). I would simply remind you that you think
differently than most people (and by most I would say
99.99% of the world). Your range of interest, knowledge
and understanding is unsurpassed by anyone I know. To
find a paying audience I think you need to focus and
simplify your offering.
The other thing which occurs to me is that maybe you
should also be networking and talking with people
associated with national government, endowments, institutes
and fellowships. Do you ever think about teaching?
Z. Todd Staheli']]>
Todd is a nice guy. And his kind words encourage me to
change my mind. However, the last example I will share in
this Thoughtlet, gets right to the point. Rick Duran first
consulted for Walden 3-D in 1990. We flew him down from
Chicago. He was an acquaintance of Ray Gardner's. He has
been on the mailing and phone list ever since. I have
refered to Rick in several Thoughtlets (../9803.html,
../9935.html, ../9949.html, and 0039.html). Rick is an
economist, and he cuts through the chaff. He wrote:
<![CDATA[ `Roice -- OK, it's all happening so fast. Let me see if I
understand. You are no longer at Continuum Resources.
Unclear whether Continuum is still in existence. Instead
of seeking, what my wife calls a real job, you have
drifted back to the love of your life work, Walden 3D.
And in spite of what you acknowledge, and I can confirm
for you, that everything on the web is free, you have
picked a subscription rate that bears no resemblance to
market forces. I am always amazed on what people in
Texas think will sell.
Do I wish you luck you, or ask where I can join.
I can't help thinking of the author of Ecclesiastes, who
said there is nothing new under the sun. Let me see if
I can't be as realistic as my optimistic self can be.
[1] I currently receive -- for free -- at least three
newsletters and movements that substantially cover the
topics you want to sell under a subscription model. They
include: UpFront.Ezine, Cad-List, and VREfresh, not to
mention the other twenty Building and Construction
related newsletters. -- all free
[2] The most expensive, pay-for-view newsletter, from
the REIT - real estate investment trust arm of the
booming stock-market is only bold enough to ask for
$395 per YEAR for their weekly newsletter, but since
then continually send me free trial subscription, I get
about 50% of the issues FREE by continuing to say NO.
[3] As to object-oriented [kit-of-parts] designing,
there are at least five new efforts, each funded at
the millions of dollars level, coming to market.
[4] as to the two-step data collection and
implementation model, there are gaping holes when
compared with the traditionally accepted approach.
[5] as to out-site assembly as a cost-saving and
productivity tool, the industry has pushed this along
some, and understands it well, and its limits.
[6] as to the automation of documentation -- most AEC
and for that matter manufacturing teams state-of-the-art
thinking is beyond focusing on how to produce drawings.
The focus is elsewhere.
[7] as to the computing power, it is there, as is the
modeling power, as is the data.
[8] as to the decision-making approach, is has always
had some structural flaws, based on your limited
understanding of the AEC industry. Which is not to
say that a little cross-industry fertilization isn't
beneficial. It's just that W3D's decision construct
has always been overly simplistic and in application,
not very useful.
And I could go on...but suffice it to say that other
that not having viable business model, a state-of-the-art
conceptual model, or a marketable product or service, I
see no problems with your new avenue.
Which probably means in the new economy you have a
viable idea. But for an unknowing VC source as a startup
idea, or an industry group hoping to blaze new paths, but
not on the newsletter of proprietary knowledge model.
There is nothing state-of-the-art there, and if there was,
no one would want to sit on it for 24 months.
Understand, we have been watching the AEC industry seriously
for over 25 years and most recently trying to see who was
going to break out of the pack for this new economy. It is
currently a very crowded field and the crowd funded by some
serious VC money -- $100,000,000 plus in the first quarter
of 2000 alone, has a better mousetrap then what you are
offering.
You have had a wonderful life, and are among the few who
have built a rocket and ridden it to the moon. You have
always worn your LG disappointments fairly close to the
surface, and have hoped that a second rocket ride would
exonerate your position. The list of two rocket riders is
even shorter. Come to peace with your history and go off
on those other more traditional later in life options --
like teaching.
I would suggest that you plant yourself firmly at SUU,
and cover your overhead under a visiting professorship.
Your students will appreciate your real-life experience
and wonderful ideas. Attach yourself firmly to the
Technology Center concept and get Scott off of square
zero with funding it. With that underway, and
every-so-often you can test the boundaries of the
industry and galaxy. And live long and prosper.
I regret I do not have the eleemosynary time and you do
not have the funding source to spend the weeks and months
explaining each of the above conclusions.
With Much Love and Appreciation for the Kindness you have
shown me and Archinomics over the years, I remain
respectfully yours;
F R Rick Duran']]>
It is really easy to self-justify our choices, and sometimes
the best thing which can happen is for someone to be frank
with us. It takes a self-confident person to be willing to
risk friendship (and business) for truth. Again, I won't
include my detailed response to Rick, unless some of you
request it. I have always tried to be frank, and I appreciate
it when someone isn't making excuses, and calls a spade a
spade. I share these notes with you because they fit the
theme of what it takes to change my mind.
Melanie and three Sara(h)'s in my life have recently given me
insights about why I these thoughtlets turn out like they do.
Sara Ellyn told Melanie, who wrote to me:
<![CDATA[ `Sara said the other day that sometimes when I am talking,
I will talk through my thoughts to someone and she said,
"kind of like dad in his thoughtlets"... anyway, I just went
off for a little while there and now I can see why it is so
easy for you to write so much sometimes in your thoughtlets.']]>
Sara Penny encouraged me to get a real job (0037.html), and
often I use this forum to attempt to encourage those I love
to do things which will be of most benefit to them. Sarah
Nelson got me with an e-mail titled: `Ethan's Walking.' As
I read the title, a feeling of failure as a Grandpa swept
over me. After all, I have only seen Ethan once. It made
me want to change my mind about how often we go to Dallas.
As several of you know, Sarah went on to say:
<![CDATA[ `Just kidding!
BUT..........
He rolled over from his belly onto his back yesterday!!!
Isn't that exciting. He hasn't quite figured out going from
his back to his belly. He'll get his head, hips, and legs
turned towards the floor. But that one arm on the floor is
a little speed bump he just can't get over!! Last night, he
was on the living room floor (Andrea's blanket to be exact)
and he was facing me... the next thing I know he was facing
the television (complete 180 turn)... then a couple minutes
later he was almost turned back towards me... He has been
moving around a lot these past couple of days.
Sara and Roice are coming up this weekend, so we'll take
pictures, video, etc. and send them out next week!
Take care,
Sarah & Ben']]>
In terms of the week, it was interesting. Most of the days
were spent filing, sorting through things, organizing stuff,
and some writing. There were a couple of hours here and
there talking to friends who are struggling in their marriages.
Monday night I went to Climbers. Tuesday Sam LeRoy and I met
with Dick Coons about his South Texas prospects. Wednesday
Chris Schmidt and the Teacher's Quorum did the combined
activity. It was a Special Olympics, including cake decorating,
basketball throws, hockey shootoffs (I was the goalie with a
Jason type mask), and stroller races. The kids had a great
time, although a table collapsed and landed on Rachel's leg.
She is OK. Thursday the missionaries came to dinner (we have
a new Elder from Long Island and he knows Mi Yung Lee referenced
in stanza I.28 of Prime Words), I had a personal priesthood
interview about home teaching, and I got a haircut. Friday
Dick Coons and I presented his prosects to Mike Dunn. In the
evening Rachel had some friends sleepover at the house. Andrea,
Matt, a friend he later spent the night with, and I went to see
the movie The Titans. I highly recommend it to all of you.
Saturday started with choir practice, and we went to all five
sessions of conference (Andrea started the first one at the
house on the Internet, however there was a call from one of the
lawyers about getting permission from the State Department to
work on Mr. Finstad's data from Iran, and she brought me the
note so I could call him back during a song). Matt and I went
to Priesthood Session together, and then we went to CiCi's for
pizza afterwards. I miss Rob, and being able to take Roice,
Ben, and Paul with me. It would also be nice to have Jared and
Nate here, to go to priesthood with us. I encourage each of
you to read the Prophet's words about the profound influence of
how our children turn out, and his strong words about divorce
in the Priesthood Session of General Conference. It was nice
to watch the last session of conference with the Staheli's in
The Woodlands. Michelle fixed a wonderful chicken and sausage
gumbo, pumpkin and apple pies, orange mandrine jello, and
french bread. It is good to have friends who we can talk to,
church leader's who give us sound guidance, and others who are
willing to step up to the plate and help us have the courage to
change our mind."
I'm interested in sharing weekly a "thoughtlet" (little statements
of big thoughts which mean a lot to me) with you because I know how
important the written word can be. I am concerned about how easy
it is to drift and forget our roots and our potential among all of
distractions of daily life. To download any of these thoughtlets
go to http://www.walden3d.com/thoughtlets or e-mail me at
rnelson@walden3d.com.
With all my love,
Dad
(H. Roice Nelson, Jr.)