. . . Replenishing the Earth
or
A Relationship Between
Peak Oil,
High Gasoline Prices,
and
L.D.S. Food Storage
| · Slide001 | Replenishing the Earth | |
| · Slide002 | Three LDS Views of the Near Future | |
| · Slide003 | Definition of LDS Food Storage | |
| · Slide004 | Definition of High Gasoline Prices? | |
| · Slide005 | Definition of Peak Oil | |
| · Slide006 | What does Peak Oil mean? | |
| · Slide007 | Background | |
| · Slide008 | Reasons for This Presentation | |
| · Slide009 | ASPO Houston Conference October 17th-20th, 2007 | |
| · Slide010 | Agenda of ASPO Houston Conference October 17th-20th, 2007 | |
| · Slide011 | ASPO Overview Talks | |
| · Slide012 | Spare Capacity and Demand | |
| · Slide013 | Oil Shockwave | |
| · Slide014 | The General Model | |
| · Slide015 | Oil Production in Lower 48 States | |
| · Slide016 | European Oil Production | |
| · Slide017 | Difference between IOCs and NOCs | |
| · Slide018 | Peak Oil & Exporter Strategies | |
| · Slide019 | Maximum World Oil Production Scenario | |
| · Slide020 | Worldwide Crash Mitigation Program | |
| · Slide021 | Mitigation Starting Year of Decline | |
| · Slide022 | Presentation Shows | |
| · Slide023 | Slowing Supply Flow Matters | |
| · Slide024 | 7 Key Pieces Saying Close to Peak Oil | |
| · Slide025 | Getting it all in Proportion | |
| · Slide026 | Supply Demand to 2012 | |
| · Slide027 | Biggest Oilfields are old, tired, and fading | |
| · Slide028 | How the barrel breaks down | |
| · Slide029 | Must Shed lots of Oil Demand | |
| · Slide030 | My conclusions at the best. | |
| · Slide031 | Technology Advancements Post US Peak | |
| · Slide032 | US dominates Nuclear Power | |
| · Slide033 | Need 180 MM Pounds Uranium/Year | |
| · Slide034 | Uranium Prices | |
| · Slide035 | Molybdenum Prices | |
| · Slide036 | Gold, Silver, Platinum Price Increases | |
| · Slide037 | Base Metal Price Increases | |
| · Slide038 | Special Metal Price Increases | |
| · Slide039 | Growth in Oil Demand = 20th Century | |
| · Slide040 | Too Many Countries Now in Decline | |
| · Slide041 | Soon Clash Between Demand and Supply | |
| · Slide042 | When Supply Peaks, Demand Unlikely to Slow | |
| · Slide043 | Will Peak Oil Surpass Global Warming? | |
| · Slide044 | Major Oil Company Production Flat | |
| · Slide045 | Summary of World Oil Production | |
| · Slide046 | Summary Oil Production | |
| · Slide047 | ASPO Importer / Exporter Talks | |
| · Slide048 | Top Five Net Oil Exporters | |
| · Slide049 | Top Five Production Consumption | |
| · Slide050 | Top Five Exports | |
| · Slide051 | Top Five Net Exports, US Imports | |
| · Slide052 | Energy Sustainability Delemma | |
| · Slide053 | World Primary Energy Consumption | |
| · Slide054 | Population, Per Capita, Source | |
| · Slide055 | Canadian Gas Deliverability Forecast | |
| · Slide056 | Summary | |
| · Slide057 | Summary Continued | |
| · Slide058 | Energy Consumption Cannot Exceed Energy Supply | |
| · Slide059 | Status of North Ghawar | |
| · Slide060 | OPEC Production and Rig Counts | |
| · Slide061 | Oil Exported | |
| · Slide062 | Map of Ghawar | |
| · Slide063 | Saturation Plot | |
| · Slide064 | Key Take Aways | |
| · Slide065 | ASPO Transportation | |
| · Slide066 | Aviation and Peak Oil | |
| · Slide067 | Optimistic and Pessimistic Peak Oil Forecast | |
| · Slide068 | Implications for Aviation Industry | |
| · Slide069 | Implications for Travel-Dependent Sectors | |
| · Slide070 | Key is GDP | |
| · Slide071 | Aviation Conclusions | |
| · Slide072 | US Oil Demand by Sector | |
| · Slide073 | Swiss Oil Use 1/400th USA Oil Use | |
| · Slide074 | What Developing Nation Built Rail? | |
| · Slide075 | Automobile History | |
| · Slide076 | Hybrid Vehicle Sales | |
| · Slide077 | ASPO Urban Planning Talks | |
| · Slide078 | Portland Peak Oil Task Force Report | |
| · Slide079 | Impact Pathways | |
| · Slide080 | #1: Reduce Oil & Gas 50% in 25 Years | |
| · Slide081 | #2: Inform Citizens | |
| · Slide082 | #3: Engage Civic Leadership | |
| · Slide083 | #4 Land Use Patterns | |
| · Slide084 | #5 Smart Infrastructure Investments | |
| · Slide085 | #6 Encourage Efficient and Renewable Transportation Choices | |
| · Slide086 | #7: Expand Energy Efficiency Programs | |
| · Slide087 | #8 Preserve Local Food Production Capability | |
| · Slide088 | #8 Preserve Local Food Production Capability + | |
| · Slide089 | #9: Promote Sustainable Business Opportunities | |
| · Slide090 | #10 Preserve Safety Net to Protect Vulnerable | |
| · Slide091 | #10: Preserve Safety Net Protect Vulnerable + | |
| · Slide092 | #11: Emergency Planning | |
| · Slide093 | Visit Oregon (while there’s still oil) | |
| · Slide094 | The Transformation Problem | |
| · Slide095 | The Places We Used To Go | |
| · Slide096 | Complexity | |
| · Slide097 | Adaptation | |
| · Slide098 | Future of Residential Developments | |
| · Slide099 | Major World Oil Supply Disruptions | |
| · Slide100 | Next Steps | |
| · Slide101 | ASPO Financial Planning Talks | |
| · Slide102 | Timing – Does It Matter? | |
| · Slide103 | Petroleum Price Trends | |
| · Slide104 | Petroleum Black Swan Events | |
| · Slide105 | Who will Spend the $20 Trillion Needed? | |
| · Slide106 | Forces Causing Pressure to Change | |
| · Slide107 | Japan Energy Mix | |
| · Slide108 | Characteristics of the Wonder Fuel | |
| · Slide109 | Energy to Make the GDP Dollar | |
| · Slide110 | A Sage Prophecy | |
| · Slide111 | Price Rationing of Peak Oil | |
| · Slide112 | History and Future of the Oil Business | |
| · Slide113 | World Crude Production | |
| · Slide114 | World Petroleum Production | |
| · Slide115 | ASPO Climate Impact Talks | |
| · Slide116 | Simulated Temperature Rising | |
| · Slide117 | Traditional Energy Sources More Expensive | |
| · Slide118 | Transportation More Expensive | |
| · Slide119 | Availability of Products and Services Cut | |
| · Slide120 | Projected CO2 Peak Oil Plateau | |
| · Slide121 | Results Summary | |
| · Slide122 | Conclusions Implications | |
| · Slide123 | Broad Policy Recommendations | |
| · Slide124 | ASPO Alternative Energy Talks | |
| · Slide125 | Key Nuclear Power Questions | |
| · Slide126 | Sources of U.S. Electricity | |
| · Slide127 | How much land will we need? | |
| · Slide128 | Some Remarks | |
| · Slide129 | U.S. Corn Ethanol Statistics | |
| · Slide130 | U.S. and Brazil | |
| · Slide131 | How effective will the cellulosic ethanol program be | |
| · Slide132 | ASPO Recovery Growth Talks | |
| · Slide133 | Imminent or Delayed Peakists | |
| · Slide134 | Ultimate World Oil Potential | |
| · Slide135 | Ultimate World Oil with only Futures | |
| · Slide136 | Immiment Peakists View of the World | |
| · Slide137 | Delayed Peakists View of the World | |
| · Slide138 | What is Recovery Growth | |
| · Slide139 | What is Recovery Growth 2 | |
| · Slide140 | Why Does Recovery Growth Occur? | |
| · Slide141 | World Recovery Growth Potential | |
| · Slide142 | How will this growth occur? | |
| · Slide143 | The transformation of the upstream disciplines and growth | |
| · Slide144 | Recovery Growth and the Future of World Oil Production | |
| · Slide145 | Cumulative Production | |
| · Slide146 | Reserves Do Not Always Grow | |
| · Slide147 | Dynamic Replenishment | |
| · Slide148 | ASPO Houston 2007 | |
| · Slide149 | Roice’s Conclusions | |
| · Slide150 | For instance, Cantarell Decline Might Bankrupt Mexico and impact Houston | |
| · Slide151 | Mexican Deep Water Fields Too Far Out in Time | |
| · Slide152 | Peak Delayed by Deep Water and Extending Texas Fields | |
| · Slide153 | Changing Pemex’s Exploration Strategy is between Hard and Impossible | |
| · Slide154 | 1. Societal Reactions to Rising Oil Prices | |
| · Slide155 | 2. Plant Ethanol Crops on Fallow Subsidies | |
| · Slide156 | 3. Use Alaskan Pipelines to Generate Electricity | |
| · Slide157 | 4. Connect the Asia and N.A. Electric Grids | |
| · Slide158 | 5. Explore for Dynamically Replenishing Fields | |
| · Slide159 | 6. Gas HydratesGas Hydrates | |
| · Slide160 | 7. Build Solar Towers on Mountain Sides | |
| · Slide161 | 8. Tidal and River Power | |
| · Slide162 | 9. Redesign Cities Around People Instead of Around Cars | |
| · Slide163 | The Last Few Slides Quote: Henry David Thoreau & R. Buckminster Fuller | |
| · Slide164 | Henry David Thoreau, Walden | |
| · Slide165 | Henry David Thoreau, Walden | |
| · Slide166 | Henry David Thoreau, Walden | |
| · Slide167 | Henry David Thoreau, Walden | |
| · Slide168 | Henry David Thoreau, Walden | |
| · Slide169 | Henry David Thoreau, Walden | |
| · Slide170 | Henry David Thoreau, Walden | |
| · Slide171 | R. Buckminster Fuller, Critical Path | |
| · Slide172 | R. Buckminster Fuller, Critical Path | |
| · Slide173 | R. Buckminster Fuller, Critical Path | |
| · Slide174 | R. Buckminster Fuller, Critical Path | |
| · Slide175 | R. Buckminster Fuller, Critical Path | |
| · Slide176 | Thank You | |
| · Slide177 | ASPO Overview Talks | |
| · Slide178 | Scenarios for Mitigation Planning | |
| · Slide179 | Mitigation Introduction | |
| · Slide180 | Spare Capacity and Demand | |
| · Slide181 | Economic and Security Implications | |
| · Slide182 | DOE Mitigation Study | |
| · Slide183 | Small is Huge | |
| · Slide184 | Oil Supply & World GDP | |
| · Slide185 | World GDP Growth & World Production | |
| · Slide186 | US GDP & Oil Shortages | |
| · Slide187 | Oil Shockwave | |
| · Slide188 | Possible Patterns of Future Production | |
| · Slide189 | The General Model | |
| · Slide190 | The Limiting Case without Plateau | |
| · Slide191 | Giant Oil Field Production History | |
| · Slide192 | Decline Rates in Selected Giant Fields | |
| · Slide193 | Oil Production in Lower 48 States | |
| · Slide194 | European Oil Production | |
| · Slide195 | N.A. Liquid Fuels Production | |
| · Slide196 | Summary N.A. & European Production | |
| · Slide197 | Forecast of Future World Oil Production | |
| · Slide198 | Skrebowski, Robelius, Cera | |
| · Slide199 | Characteristics of Production Forecasts | |
| · Slide200 | Summary of Oil Forecasts | |
| · Slide201 | World Oil Market Control Power Shift | |
| · Slide202 | Difference between IOCs and NOCs | |
| · Slide203 | Peak Oil & Exporter Strategies | |
| · Slide204 | Oil Exporter Withholding Scenario | |
| · Slide205 | IEA: There’s Trouble | |
| · Slide206 | Three Planning Scenarios | |
| · Slide207 | Maximum World Oil Production Scenario | |
| · Slide208 | Worldwide Crash Mitigation Program | |
| · Slide209 | Mitigation Starting Year of Decline | |
| · Slide210 | Summary | |
| · Slide211 | The Uglier It Gets | |
| · Slide212 | Mega-projects Update | |
| · Slide213 | Chris Skrebowski | |
| · Slide214 | What is Peak Oil? | |
| · Slide215 | Non-OPEC Supply Growth | |
| · Slide216 | Presentation Shows | |
| · Slide217 | Slowing Supply Flow Matters | |
| · Slide218 | 7 Key Pieces Saying Close to Peak Oil | |
| · Slide219 | Getting it all in Proportion | |
| · Slide220 | Could This Be Peak Flows | |
| · Slide221 | OPEC 11 Crude Oil Suppliers | |
| · Slide222 | Oil Companies Struggle to hold production | |
| · Slide223 | Non-Geologic Threats to Supply Flow | |
| · Slide224 | Economics is not working well | |
| · Slide225 | How Fast is Depletion? | |
| · Slide226 | Mega-Projects Database 2007 | |
| · Slide227 | Supply Demand to 2012 | |
| · Slide228 | Biggest Oilfields are old, tired, and fading | |
| · Slide229 | How the barrel breaks down | |
| · Slide230 | Must Shed lots of Oil Demand | |
| · Slide231 | Are there realistic substitutes for oil? | |
| · Slide232 | My conclusions at the best. | |
| · Slide233 | China and India’s Impact on the U.S. | |
| · Slide234 | China’s Share of World Mineral Production | |
| · Slide235 | Technology Advancements Post US Peak | |
| · Slide236 | Oil Shale | |
| · Slide237 | Oil Shale at Book Cliffs | |
| · Slide238 | Gas Supply to Remain Flat | |
| · Slide239 | China built 117 Coal-Fired Power Plants | |
| · Slide240 | US dominates Nuclear Power | |
| · Slide241 | Need 180 MM Pounds Uranium/Year | |
| · Slide242 | Uranium Prices | |
| · Slide243 | Molybdenum Prices | |
| · Slide244 | Gold, Silver, Platinum Price Increases | |
| · Slide245 | Base Metal Price Increases | |
| · Slide246 | Special Metal Price Increases | |
| · Slide247 | Cement Markets and Shortages | |
| · Slide248 | Critical Material Needed for Alternative Energy | |
| · Slide249 | Impact of Raw Material Shortages | |
| · Slide250 | Gauging the Risk of Peak Oil | |
| · Slide251 | Optimists and Pessimists Debate | |
| · Slide252 | National Petroleum Council Peak Oil | |
| · Slide253 | Supply Data Points show Danger | |
| · Slide254 | Demand Seems Insatiable | |
| · Slide255 | Optimists Scoff at Peak Oil Risk | |
| · Slide256 | Optimists work on “Above Ground” Risks | |
| · Slide257 | Peak Oil May Be Past Tense | |
| · Slide258 | Decline Rates Are Steep Treadmill | |
| · Slide259 | Decline Rate Nightmare | |
| · Slide260 | Crude Supply Not Sufficient | |
| · Slide261 | Natural Gas Liquids Mysterious Growth | |
| · Slide262 | Is Oil Demand Biggest “Above Ground” Risk? | |
| · Slide263 | Is Growth in Oil Demand Sustainable? | |
| · Slide264 | Growth in Oil Demand = 20th Century | |
| · Slide265 | Oil Demand Growing Everywhere | |
| · Slide266 | Oil Demand Outside OECD Growing | |
| · Slide267 | OECD Demand Mixed Bag | |
| · Slide268 | Recent Projected Growth | |
| · Slide269 | Serious Demand Assumes Growth | |
| · Slide270 | Transportation Propelling Oil Growth | |
| · Slide271 | Hard to Stop Transportation Oil Growth | |
| · Slide272 | Creating “Mobility” Uses More Oil | |
| · Slide273 | Oil Demand Not Likely to Decline | |
| · Slide274 | Demand Growth Requires Vast E&P Spending | |
| · Slide275 | How Secure is Our Current Supply? | |
| · Slide276 | Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Fields Declining | |
| · Slide277 | Too Many Countries Now in Decline | |
| · Slide278 | New Fields Since 2000 “Skimpy” | |
| · Slide279 | Snapshot of Key Shrinking Discoveries | |
| · Slide280 | Does the World Have a Safe Supply Cushion | |
| · Slide281 | Is Ghawar RunningDry? | |
| · Slide282 | Saudi’s Candor Suggests “All Is Not Well” | |
| · Slide283 | Evidence Suggests Saudi Struggles to Keep Exports Flat | |
| · Slide284 | Perhaps Good News is Hiding | |
| · Slide285 | Soon Clash Between Demand and Supply | |
| · Slide286 | Can Winter Oil Demand Be Met? | |
| · Slide287 | Stress in Meeting 88 Million B/Day | |
| · Slide288 | Insidious “Above Ground Risk” is Rust | |
| · Slide289 | Where will Added Refinery Throughput come From? | |
| · Slide290 | Oil and Gas Infrastructure Must Be Rebuilt ASAP | |
| · Slide291 | Do we have Raw Resources to Rebuild? | |
| · Slide292 | What happens when Demand Exceeds Supply? | |
| · Slide293 | When Supply Peaks, Demand Unlikely to Slow | |
| · Slide294 | Does it Matter Why Chicago Burned Down? | |
| · Slide295 | Is it too late to Create Early A Warning Radar System? | |
| · Slide296 | Is there Any Downside to Data Reform? | |
| · Slide297 | Will Peak Oil Surpass Global Warming? | |
| · Slide298 | Peak Oil Risk is Genuine | |
| · Slide299 | Decreasing / Increasing Production | |
| · Slide300 | UK Production History | |
| · Slide301 | Oil Producing Countries Pass Peak | |
| · Slide302 | Major Oil Company Production Flat | |
| · Slide303 | Summary of World Oil Production | |
| · Slide304 | UK & Norway Production | |
| · Slide305 | North America Oil Production | |
| · Slide306 | Middle East Oil Production | |
| · Slide307 | Canada Oil Production | |
| · Slide308 | Russia Oil Production | |
| · Slide309 | Africa Oil Production | |
| · Slide310 | Latin America Oil Production | |
| · Slide311 | Australia Oil Production | |
| · Slide312 | Alaska Oil Production | |
| · Slide313 | Gulf of Mexico Oil Production | |
| · Slide314 | North America Oil Production | |
| · Slide315 | South America Oil Production | |
| · Slide316 | Europe Oil Production | |
| · Slide317 | FSU Caspian Oil Production | |
| · Slide318 | Arabian Gulf Oil Production | |
| · Slide319 | Africa Oil Production | |
| · Slide320 | Eurasia Oil Production | |
| · Slide321 | Summary Oil Production | |
| · Slide322 | Simmons & Company International | |
| · Slide323 | ASPO Importer / Exporter Talks | |
| · Slide324 | Top Five Net Oil Exporters | |
| · Slide325 | UK Production and Net Exports | |
| · Slide326 | Export Land Model | |
| · Slide327 | UK, Indonesial, ELM Net Exports | |
| · Slide328 | Conventional Wisdom Saudi | |
| · Slide329 | Constant Production vs Consumption Increases | |
| · Slide330 | Saudi Production & Consumption | |
| · Slide331 | Saudi Arabia Net Exports | |
| · Slide332 | Russia Production Consumption | |
| · Slide333 | Russia Exports | |
| · Slide334 | Norway Production Consumption | |
| · Slide335 | Norway Exports | |
| · Slide336 | Iran Production Consumption | |
| · Slide337 | Iran Exports | |
| · Slide338 | UAE Production Consumption | |
| · Slide339 | UAE Exports | |
| · Slide340 | Top Five Production Consumption | |
| · Slide341 | Top Five Exports | |
| · Slide342 | Top Five Net Exports, US Imports | |
| · Slide343 | Trams in San Angelo, Texas 1908 | |
| · Slide344 | Energy Sustainability Delemma | |
| · Slide345 | World Primary Energy Consumption | |
| · Slide346 | Three Economic Cases | |
| · Slide347 | Growth in World Consumption | |
| · Slide348 | Per Capita Primary Energy Consumption | |
| · Slide349 | Population, Per Capita, Source | |
| · Slide350 | Cumulative Human Oil Consumption | |
| · Slide351 | Gas Consumption Three Cases | |
| · Slide352 | World Gas Reserves | |
| · Slide353 | 2006 Gas Production Forecast | |
| · Slide354 | Total Hydrocarbon Production Forecast | |
| · Slide355 | North America Gas Production and Movement | |
| · Slide356 | Canada’s Exploration Treadmill | |
| · Slide357 | Canadian Marketable Gas Production | |
| · Slide358 | Finding and Development Costs Up | |
| · Slide359 | Canadian Drill Rig Count and Gas | |
| · Slide360 | Canadian Gas Deliverability Forecast | |
| · Slide361 | Canadian Gas Demand | |
| · Slide362 | U.S. Gas Consumption | |
| · Slide363 | U.S. Gas Supply Forecast | |
| · Slide364 | U.S. Gas Exploration Treadmill | |
| · Slide365 | U.S. Dry Gas Production | |
| · Slide366 | U.S. Rig Count and Gas Production | |
| · Slide367 | U.S. Gas Shortfall Forecast | |
| · Slide368 | Cumulative Human Coal Consumption | |
| · Slide369 | World Coal Production & Consumption | |
| · Slide370 | World Hydrocarbon Consumption 2006 | |
| · Slide371 | World Remaining Hydrocarbon Content | |
| · Slide372 | Price of Hydrocarbons in GigaJoules | |
| · Slide373 | Forcast Future Coal Production | |
| · Slide374 | Nuclear Fuel Supply Issue | |
| · Slide375 | The Hydrocarbons We Eat | |
| · Slide376 | Summary | |
| · Slide377 | Summary Continued | |
| · Slide378 | Energy Consumption Cannot Exceed Energy Supply | |
| · Slide379 | Status of North Ghawar | |
| · Slide380 | OPEC Production and Rig Counts | |
| · Slide381 | Oil Exported | |
| · Slide382 | Map of Ghawar | |
| · Slide383 | Original Reserve Calcuations | |
| · Slide384 | 1980 Aramco Table | |
| · Slide385 | Saturation Change | |
| · Slide386 | Saturation Modeling | |
| · Slide387 | Saturation Plot | |
| · Slide388 | Cumulative Production | |
| · Slide389 | Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Distortions | |
| · Slide390 | Key Take Aways | |
| · Slide391 | ASPO Transportation Talks | |
| · Slide392 | Aviation and Peak Oil | |
| · Slide393 | Conventional Wisdom: Rapid Aviation Growth | |
| · Slide394 | Air Travel Historical and Forecast | |
| · Slide395 | Will Peak Oil Destroy Aviation? | |
| · Slide396 | Commercial Airlines Worried About Fuel Cost | |
| · Slide397 | Aviation Fuel Costs Risen Rapidly | |
| · Slide398 | Airlines Worried About Fuel Availability | |
| · Slide399 | High Prices Will Not Destroy Aviation | |
| · Slide400 | Fuel Costs 25%-30% Airline Costs | |
| · Slide401 | Economic Effects Will Do Damage | |
| · Slide402 | Two Scenarios | |
| · Slide403 | Optimistic and Pessimistic Peak Oil Forecast | |
| · Slide404 | Traffic, Revenues, Cargo, & Fleet | |
| · Slide405 | Implications for Aviation Industry | |
| · Slide406 | Implications for Travel-Dependent Sectors | |
| · Slide407 | Key is GDP | |
| · Slide408 | CTL Synfuel Alternative | |
| · Slide409 | Synfuel Benefits | |
| · Slide410 | Aviation Conclusions | |
| · Slide411 | Aviation Recommendations | |
| · Slide412 | US Oil Demand by Sector | |
| · Slide413 | Swiss Oil Use 1/400th USA Oil Use | |
| · Slide414 | ASPO Ireland Oil Supply Scenario | |
| · Slide415 | What Developing Nation Built Rail? | |
| · Slide416 | USA 1897-1916 | |
| · Slide417 | Rail Road Construction ~1900 | |
| · Slide418 | Sustainable Mobility and Hybrids | |
| · Slide419 | Drivers for Change in Auto Industry | |
| · Slide420 | Energy and Fuel Diversification | |
| · Slide421 | CO2 Emissions Past and Future | |
| · Slide422 | Air Quality Trends in U.S. | |
| · Slide423 | Status of Hybrid Vehicles Today | |
| · Slide424 | Hybrid Vehicles Available in U.S. Today | |
| · Slide425 | Sustainability through Life Cycle Assessment | |
| · Slide426 | Life Cycle Assessment for Prius | |
| · Slide427 | Status of Plug-In Hybrid Technology | |
| · Slide428 | Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) Benefits | |
| · Slide429 | All Electric Range (AER) vs PHEV | |
| · Slide430 | AER vs Blended System | |
| · Slide431 | Hydrogen and Battery Challenges Remain | |
| · Slide432 | Direction of Battery Development for Vehilcles | |
| · Slide433 | PHEV Challenges | |
| · Slide434 | Battery Installation Space | |
| · Slide435 | Battery Issue Charging Time | |
| · Slide436 | CO2 Reduction | |
| · Slide437 | Hybrid and PHEV Total Emissions | |
| · Slide438 | Conclusions | |
| · Slide439 | Toyota’s Mission | |
| · Slide440 | Automobile History | |
| · Slide441 | Hybrid Vehicle Sales | |
| · Slide442 | ASPO Urban Planning Talks | |
| · Slide443 | Portland Peak Oil Task Force Report | |
| · Slide444 | Portland Peak Oil Task Force | |
| · Slide445 | Task Force Make-Up | |
| · Slide446 | Task Force Process | |
| · Slide447 | Four Subgroups | |
| · Slide448 | Ground Rules | |
| · Slide449 | Ground Rules continued | |
| · Slide450 | Scenarios | |
| · Slide451 | Process Determines Impacts and Recommendations | |
| · Slide452 | Impact Pathways | |
| · Slide453 | Key Questions Transportation & Land Use | |
| · Slide454 | Key Impact Transportation and Land Use | |
| · Slide455 | Key Questions Food & Agriculture | |
| · Slide456 | Key Impact Food & Agriculture | |
| · Slide457 | Key Question Economy Business & Jobs | |
| · Slide458 | Key Impacts Economy Business & Jobs | |
| · Slide459 | Key Impacts Economy Business & Jobs | |
| · Slide460 | Key Impacts Economy Traded Sector | |
| · Slide461 | Key Question Public & Social Services | |
| · Slide462 | Key Impacts Public & Social Services | |
| · Slide463 | Key Impacts Public & Social Services + | |
| · Slide464 | Unresolved | |
| · Slide465 | Unaddressed Issues | |
| · Slide466 | Recommendations | |
| · Slide467 | #1: Reduce Oil & Gas 50% in 25 Years | |
| · Slide468 | #2: Inform Citizens | |
| · Slide469 | #3: Engage Civic Leadership | |
| · Slide470 | #4 Land Use Patterns | |
| · Slide471 | #5 Smart Infrastructure Investments | |
| · Slide472 | #6 Encourage Efficient and Renewable Transportation Choices | |
| · Slide473 | #7: Expand Energy Efficiency Programs | |
| · Slide474 | #8 Preserve Local Food Production Capability | |
| · Slide475 | #8 Preserve Local Food Production Capability + | |
| · Slide476 | #9: Promote Sustainable Business Opportunities | |
| · Slide477 | #10 Preserve Safety Net to Protect Vulnerable | |
| · Slide478 | #10: Preserve Safety Net Protect Vulnerable + | |
| · Slide479 | #11: Emergency Planning | |
| · Slide480 | Visit Oregon (while there’s still oil) | |
| · Slide481 | Houston After Peak Oil | |
| · Slide482 | Houston 2007 | |
| · Slide483 | Future Studies | |
| · Slide484 | Agenda | |
| · Slide485 | Shape of Disruptive Change | |
| · Slide486 | Successive Eras | |
| · Slide487 | The Transformation Problem | |
| · Slide488 | The Reality of Change | |
| · Slide489 | Houston Today | |
| · Slide490 | Houston Strengths | |
| · Slide491 | Houston Liabilities | |
| · Slide492 | Benefits of Scenarios | |
| · Slide493 | Scenario 2040 | |
| · Slide494 | Houston 2040 | |
| · Slide495 | Energy Stationary 2040 | |
| · Slide496 | Future Energy Images | |
| · Slide497 | Future Energy Images + | |
| · Slide498 | Future Energy Images New Devices | |
| · Slide499 | Energy Mobile 2040 | |
| · Slide500 | Demand Efficiencies | |
| · Slide501 | Transportation Efficiencies | |
| · Slide502 | The Places We Used To Go | |
| · Slide503 | Behavior Differences | |
| · Slide504 | Elements of the Future | |
| · Slide505 | Business Ventures | |
| · Slide506 | Research Initiatives | |
| · Slide507 | Functions of Government | |
| · Slide508 | Houston Initiatives | |
| · Slide509 | Complexity | |
| · Slide510 | Adaptation | |
| · Slide511 | Houston After Oil | |
| · Slide512 | Forbes Eco Lofts | |
| · Slide513 | Forbes Innovations | |
| · Slide514 | Forbes | |
| · Slide515 | BedZED | |
| · Slide516 | BedZED Facilities Center | |
| · Slide517 | BedZED Living Machine | |
| · Slide518 | BedZED EV Plug-In | |
| · Slide519 | Changsha Master Plan | |
| · Slide520 | Changsha | |
| · Slide521 | Changsha Cross Section | |
| · Slide522 | SkyZED | |
| · Slide523 | SkyZED Tower | |
| · Slide524 | SkyZED Vertical Wind Turbines | |
| · Slide525 | Dongtan China | |
| · Slide526 | Dongtan Satellite View | |
| · Slide527 | Dongtan Master Plan | |
| · Slide528 | Dongtan Aerial View | |
| · Slide529 | Future of Residential Developments | |
| · Slide530 | Biochemical Industry | |
| · Slide531 | Biorefined Products on the Market | |
| · Slide532 | Biochemical Industry Benefits | |
| · Slide533 | Biochemicals Government Forecast | |
| · Slide534 | Americans Have to be Hit with a 2x4 | |
| · Slide535 | Major World Oil Supply Disruptions | |
| · Slide536 | City Services Huntington Beach, CA | |
| · Slide537 | City Services Huntington Beach, CA + | |
| · Slide538 | Municipal Opportunities | |
| · Slide539 | Next Steps | |
| · Slide540 | Peak Oil and the Media | |
| · Slide541 | Why is the media paying so little attention | |
| · Slide542 | Do we really care? | |
| · Slide543 | What will force a change? | |
| · Slide544 | States are laboratories for energy action | |
| · Slide545 | Policies, Rules, Incentives, Funding | |
| · Slide546 | Renewable Portfolio Standards | |
| · Slide547 | Green Building Standards | |
| · Slide548 | Building Codes | |
| · Slide549 | Cap and Trade | |
| · Slide550 | Incentives | |
| · Slide551 | Incentives + | |
| · Slide552 | More Incentives | |
| · Slide553 | Funding | |
| · Slide554 | ASPO Financial Planning Talks | |
| · Slide555 | Timing – Does It Matter? | |
| · Slide556 | Strategic Perspective 21st Century Energy | |
| · Slide557 | Strategic Challenges (Drivers) | |
| · Slide558 | Petroleum Price Trends | |
| · Slide559 | Market Appreciation of Resource Maturity | |
| · Slide560 | E&P CAPEX vs Global Oil Demand | |
| · Slide561 | Recent Increase in F, D, & A Costs | |
| · Slide562 | Rising Resource Nationalism | |
| · Slide563 | Heightened Environmental Sensitivities | |
| · Slide564 | Realignment of Economic and National Security Interests | |
| · Slide565 | Practical Peak Oil | |
| · Slide566 | The Black Swan | |
| · Slide567 | Peak Gas | |
| · Slide568 | Components of U.S. Gas Supply | |
| · Slide569 | Evolving U.S. Natural Gas Grid | |
| · Slide570 | Petroleum Black Swan Events | |
| · Slide571 | Concluding Observations | |
| · Slide572 | Global Energy Demand Forecasting | |
| · Slide573 | Competition for Resources | |
| · Slide574 | Worldwide Oil and Gas Reserves | |
| · Slide575 | Super Majors Total Upstream CAPEX vs Production | |
| · Slide576 | Super Majors R&D Spending | |
| · Slide577 | Who will Spend the $20 Trillion Needed? | |
| · Slide578 | Beyond “A Thousand Barrels a Second” | |
| · Slide579 | Edison Bulb | |
| · Slide580 | Adoption of Electric Lighting N.A. | |
| · Slide581 | Whaling Log | |
| · Slide582 | Energy Evolution Cycle | |
| · Slide583 | Forces Causing Pressure to Change | |
| · Slide584 | Japan Energy Mix | |
| · Slide585 | Characteristics of the Wonder Fuel | |
| · Slide586 | “Not a wheel turns without petroleum” | |
| · Slide587 | Traffic Congestion Houston, TX | |
| · Slide588 | Urban Sprawl, Las Vegas, NV | |
| · Slide589 | Vehicle Obesity | |
| · Slide590 | Number of People in Perspective | |
| · Slide591 | Tata Motors in India | |
| · Slide592 | Advanced vs Developing Economies | |
| · Slide593 | Percent Global Economy | |
| · Slide594 | GDP Growth Rates | |
| · Slide595 | 2007 Oil Demand Growth | |
| · Slide596 | Energy to Make the GDP Dollar | |
| · Slide597 | A Sage Prophecy | |
| · Slide598 | World Energy Mix | |
| · Slide599 | China Energy Mix | |
| · Slide600 | China’s Go Forward Energy Mix | |
| · Slide601 | World Natural Gas Demand by Region | |
| · Slide602 | Price Rationing of Peak Oil | |
| · Slide603 | History and Future of the Oil Business | |
| · Slide604 | World Crude Production | |
| · Slide605 | World Petroleum Production | |
| · Slide606 | World Crude Oil Consumption | |
| · Slide607 | World Petroleum Deliveries | |
| · Slide608 | World Petroleum Use By Sector | |
| · Slide609 | ASPO Climate Talks Houston Conference October 17th-20th, 2007 | |
| · Slide610 | Hubbert’s Peak, Coal, and Climate | |
| · Slide611 | Cumulative Plot for U.S. Oil | |
| · Slide612 | Rate Plot for World Oil and Gas | |
| · Slide613 | British Coal Production | |
| · Slide614 | American Coal Production | |
| · Slide615 | Coal West of the Mississippi | |
| · Slide616 | Coal East of the Mississippi | |
| · Slide617 | Rate Plot for China | |
| · Slide618 | Rate Plot for Europe | |
| · Slide619 | Rate Plot for South Asia | |
| · Slide620 | Former Soviet Union | |
| · Slide621 | Production Reserves for World Coal | |
| · Slide622 | Alternatives to Fossil Fuels | |
| · Slide623 | Simulated Temperature Rising | |
| · Slide624 | Proposal Fossil-Fuel Preserves | |
| · Slide625 | Peak Oil, Global Climate Change, and the Planner’s Response | |
| · Slide626 | Financial Planning Principles | |
| · Slide627 | Financial Planning Responses | |
| · Slide628 | Disruption and New Rules at All Levels | |
| · Slide629 | Traditional Energy Sources More Expensive | |
| · Slide630 | Transportation More Expensive | |
| · Slide631 | Availability of Products and Services Cut | |
| · Slide632 | Investment Policy Statement Process | |
| · Slide633 | “Worldview Two” Portfolio | |
| · Slide634 | “Worldview Two” Portfolio Content | |
| · Slide635 | Conclusion | |
| · Slide636 | Implications of “Peak Oil” for Atmospheric CO2 and Climate | |
| · Slide637 | Goals / Motivation | |
| · Slide638 | Anthropogenic GHG Changes | |
| · Slide639 | Past Sea Level and Temperatures | |
| · Slide640 | Assumed Resource Supplies | |
| · Slide641 | Overview of Emissions Scenarios | |
| · Slide642 | Business as Usual Scenario | |
| · Slide643 | Coal Phase-Out Scenario | |
| · Slide644 | Alternative Peak Oil Trajectory | |
| · Slide645 | Fast Use Oil Scenario | |
| · Slide646 | Les Oil Reserves Scenario | |
| · Slide647 | Peak Oil Plateau Scenario | |
| · Slide648 | Comparison with SRES Scenarios | |
| · Slide649 | CO2 Time Series Calculation | |
| · Slide650 | Calculated CO2 vs Data | |
| · Slide651 | Projected CO2 Business as Usual | |
| · Slide652 | Projected CO2 Coal Phase Out | |
| · Slide653 | Projected CO2 Fast Oil Use | |
| · Slide654 | Project CO2 Less Oil Reserves | |
| · Slide655 | Projected CO2 Peak Oil Plateau | |
| · Slide656 | Results Summary | |
| · Slide657 | Conclusions Implications | |
| · Slide658 | Broad Policy Recommendations | |
| · Slide659 | Acknowledgements | |
| · Slide660 | Comments on Climate Change and E85 | |
| · Slide661 | ASPO Alternative Energy Talks | |
| · Slide662 | US Commercial Nuclear Power Status | |
| · Slide663 | Key Nuclear Power Questions | |
| · Slide664 | Global Oil Production Peaking | |
| · Slide665 | Nuclear Power Dangerous | |
| · Slide666 | Nuclear Power Fantastic Way to Power a Navy | |
| · Slide667 | U.S. San Francisco Mishap and Power | |
| · Slide668 | Scale Comparisons Nuclear to Oil | |
| · Slide669 | Sources of U.S. Electricity | |
| · Slide670 | U.S. Nuclear Solid Performance | |
| · Slide671 | U.S. Electrical Costs | |
| · Slide672 | Sustained Reliability U.S. Nuclear Plants | |
| · Slide673 | Nuclear Holds 20% Market Share | |
| · Slide674 | Outlook without New Nuclear Power Plants | |
| · Slide675 | Investing Nuclear vs Renewables | |
| · Slide676 | Planned New Nuclear Plants | |
| · Slide677 | Spent Nuclear Fuel Temporary Storage | |
| · Slide678 | Spent Nuclear Fuel in Perspective | |
| · Slide679 | How Good is our bet on Biofuels? | |
| · Slide680 | U.S. Corn Ethanol Production | |
| · Slide681 | Land Needed to Meet U.S. Gasoline Needs with Ethonal | |
| · Slide682 | Energy Metric | |
| · Slide683 | Energy Balance for Corn Ethanol | |
| · Slide684 | Energy Balance for Corn Ethanol + | |
| · Slide685 | GHG Emissions for Corn Ethanol | |
| · Slide686 | Cellulosic EthanolProduction | |
| · Slide687 | Energy Balance for Switchgrass | |
| · Slide688 | Energy Balance for Switchgrass + | |
| · Slide689 | Land Required with Cellulosic Ethanol | |
| · Slide690 | How much land will we need? | |
| · Slide691 | Some Remarks | |
| · Slide692 | U.S. Corn Ethanol Statistics | |
| · Slide693 | U.S. and Brazil | |
| · Slide694 | How effective will the cellulosic ethanol program be | |
| · Slide695 | ASPO Recovery Growth Talks | |
| · Slide696 | Taking Recovery Growth Seriously | |
| · Slide697 | What kind of Peakists are we? | |
| · Slide698 | Imminent or Delayed Peakists | |
| · Slide699 | Bid Deal is Manageable Transition | |
| · Slide700 | Why Peakists Differ? | |
| · Slide701 | Ultimate World Oil Potential | |
| · Slide702 | Ultimate World Oil with only Futures | |
| · Slide703 | Why do world oil assessments differ? | |
| · Slide704 | Immiment Peakists View of the World | |
| · Slide705 | Delayed Peakists View of the World | |
| · Slide706 | What is Recovery Growth | |
| · Slide707 | What is Recovery Growth 2 | |
| · Slide708 | Why Does Recovery Growth Occur? | |
| · Slide709 | World Recovery Growth Potential | |
| · Slide710 | How will this growth occur? | |
| · Slide711 | The transformation of the upstream disciplines and growth | |
| · Slide712 | Recovery Growth and the Future of World Oil Production | |
| · Slide713 | Future World Oil Final Constrained Projections | |
| · Slide714 | Final Projections: Cumulative Production and Committed Resources | |
| · Slide715 | Critiques of Recovery Growth | |
| · Slide716 | Critiques of Recovery Growth 2 | |
| · Slide717 | Critiques of Recovery Growth 3 | |
| · Slide718 | Taking Recovery Growth Seriously | |
| · Slide719 | The Devil is in the Lack of Data | |
| · Slide720 | Status of the Peak Oil Message | |
| · Slide721 | Status of the Peak Oil Message | |
| · Slide722 | Deriving the Supply Curve | |
| · Slide723 | Supply Forecast Background | |
| · Slide724 | Supply Forecast Background 2 | |
| · Slide725 | Supply Forecast Background 3 | |
| · Slide726 | Supply Background Forecast 4 | |
| · Slide727 | Potential for Reserves Growth | |
| · Slide728 | Differences in Reserves Growth Estimates | |
| · Slide729 | Reserves Do Not Always Grow | |
| · Slide730 | How Reserves are Estimated | |
| · Slide731 | Why Might Resource Estimates Change? | |
| · Slide732 | Why might Resource Estimates Change? 2 | |
| · Slide733 | Why might Resource Factor Estimates Change? | |
| · Slide734 | Why might Resource Factor Estimates Change? 2 | |
| · Slide735 | CO2 and EOR | |
| · Slide736 | CO2 Injection as an EOR Process | |
| · Slide737 | CP2 Sesquestration | |
| · Slide738 | Scope for application of Reserve Growth Techniques | |
| · Slide739 | Scope for application of Reserves Growth Techniques 2 | |
| · Slide740 | Can Recovery Efficiency Ever Reach 100% | |
| · Slide741 | Can Recovery Efficiency Ever Reach 100%? 2 | |
| · Slide742 | A Better Estimate of Potential for Reserves Growth | |
| · Slide743 | Incremental Production Due to Reserves Growth | |
| · Slide744 | Reserves Growth: Impact of New Technology | |
| · Slide745 | Reserves Growth: Impact of New Technology 2 | |
| · Slide746 | Future Supply – Even With Reserves Growth | |
| · Slide747 | Future Supply – Even With Reserves Growth 2 | |
| · Slide748 | Future Supply – Even With Reserves Growth 3 | |
| · Slide749 | Reserves Growth – Take Home Message | |
| · Slide750 | Reserves Growth – Take Home Message 2 | |
| · Slide751 | We Don’t Always Get It Right | |
| · Slide752 | Dynamic Replenishment | |
| · Slide753 | ASPO Houston 2007 | |
| · Slide754 | Energy and Humanity | |
| · Slide755 | Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources | |
| · Slide756 | The Hydrocarbon Cycle | |
| · Slide757 | EI-330 Field | |
| · Slide758 | Some Oil & Gas Fields Dynamically Replenish | |
| · Slide759 | Replenishment ties to Seal and Source | |
| · Slide760 | Shallow Producing Zones | |
| · Slide761 | Deeper Producing Zones | |
| · Slide762 | Temperature Increases Above Geopressure Zones | |
| · Slide763 | Offshore Texas Oil & Gas Fields | |
| · Slide764 | Big Fields are Overpressured | |
| · Slide765 | Dynamic Pressure Seals | |
| · Slide766 | Geopressure Seals | |
| · Slide767 | Fluid Flow Model | |
| · Slide768 | Texas Onshore Example | |
| · Slide769 | Louisiana Offshore Example | |
| · Slide770 | Colorado County Example | |
| · Slide771 | Colorado County Geopressure Cells | |
| · Slide772 | Gas Hydrates, Volcanics, and Spatial Resume | |
| · Slide773 | Cantarell Decline Might Bankrupt Mexico | |
| · Slide774 | Mexican Deep Water Too Far Out in Time | |
| · Slide775 | Peak Delayed by Deep Water and Texas Extensions | |
| · Slide776 | ASPO Houston 2007 |