01 Apr 2007 #0714.html

Earthquake Revisited

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Dear Family and Friends,

Welcome to this week's "Thoughtlet."

These words are my personal diary and a weekly review of ideas, beliefs, thoughts, or words that will hopefully be of some benefit to you: my children, my family, and my friends.

"There were a couple of thoughts for a title for this week's Thoughtlet. The first one came Monday as I walked to the stairs and one of the processors said, 'Stairman!' I'm sure one of the reasons the TV shows I like are '24,' 'The Unit,' 'Smallville,' 'Numb3rs,' and BBC's 'Robin Hood' is because I have a Superman complex. As I take my tie off in my office cell (like in prison cell) at lunchtime, I sometimes think of Clark Kent changing in the janitor's closet. Of course, I can't take my glasses off when I become 'Stairman," or I would fall down the stairs and you wouldn't have a Dad anymore. However, after a brief chat conversation with Paul on Thursday, I decided the title for this week needed to be 'earthquakes.' The conversation is repeated here for your amusement:

'me: Is there a way to set up a conference call on the Internet, where anyone who wants can call in and join, and where the conversation is captured so those who did not join can review the call later? I'm thinking family phone time on Sundays. Love, Dad Paul: We do it for work, but I doubt you will find a free service. We use a Verizon service. Maybe through Skype? I will check into it. me: Thanks. I'm willing to fund it, at least for a few month test. Have a wonderful Easter. Paul: You too. I missed you Sunday. Curious to chat and get your thoughts on Conference. Sent at 1:03 PM on Thursday me: I'm concerned for those in Salt Lake for the impending earthquake. Other than that, I thought conference was good, and I wish everyone in the world listened and took notes like I did. Paul: What talk did that impression come from? Sent at 1:05 PM on Thursday me: Two years ago when they started to re-enforce the tabernacle the key reason given was to bring it up to seismic code. President Hinkley pointedly used the word seismic in his closing talk and dedication prayer in the tabernacle. Paul: Will the reinforcement of the Tabernacle matter? I thought the capitol building would surf down the clay hill into temple square? me: Very possible. But the new conference center ought to stop it from damaging the tabernacle. Paul: good point. Sent at 1:08 PM on Thursday'

I include this because I thought I have never written about earthquakes in these Thoughtlets. As a seismologist, it makes sense that I at least attempt to pass on to my posterity a few thoughts about the earthquake aspects of seismology. In the dictionary on my desk seismic is defined as "of, relating to, resembling, or caused by an earthquake." Of course, none of my professional career as a seismologist has anything to do with natural earthquakes. The big dictionary in the reading room defines seismic as "pertaining to, of the nature of, or caused by an earthquake or vibration of the earth, whether due to natural or artificial causes." Now this is a better description of my life: "vibration of the earth due to artificial causes." No, I won't follow this thought to all logical ends. Rather, I will go back to my undergraduate days in the Department of Geophysics at the University of Utah. We had to take several courses tied to earthquake measurements and monitoring.

It was at this point in writing the Thoughtlet that I did a search through previous Thoughtlets for use of the word 'Earthquake.' Imagine my surprise to learn this word has been used in 21 previous Thoughtlets. In fact #9942 is titled "Earthquake." It talks about the problems of the 'quick clays' in the Salt Lake Valley, which turn to liquid when shaken, and which will buckle roads and airport landing strips and create big problems. In #0001 I express my fear for the Salt Lake Valley when there is a major earthquake there. In #0249 I talk about Dr. Amos Nur at Stanford, and his excellent earthquake studies in Israel. In #0414 I write about Weng Webo, a very famous Chinese Geophysicist I was privileged to meet who predicted a giant earthquake in China and is credited with saving hundreds of thousands of lives. And in #0540 I quote from the Prophet speaking at General Conference Priesthood Meeting, which we arrived at after working all day in Beaumont helping hand out food and supplies to Hurricane Rita survivors, then I wrote:

"I was blown away by these comments. Last year when the Prophet announced the work on the tabernacle, I told Andrea that he was warning of an impending earthquake. This year, it could not be much plainer. In fact I wrote my professor, Robert Smith, and asked him if anyone else commented on this talk. He did not respond, but I expect I will see him at the SEG, and it will be interesting to hear his comments. Especially since one of the projects he had us work on was how to tell the population of an area about an earthquake prediction. We also spent a lot of time talking about how when there is a major earthquake in the Salt Lake Valley, there will be several serious problems. First, the clay underlying the valley will all move, and the roads and airport runways will no longer be working. I think they should have pontoon runways ready to put on the Great Salt Lake, so that emergency help can be brought into the valley. Second, all of the houses built on Lake Bonneville sand benches will come rolling down the mountains, and it will make the annual problems in California look like a Sunday picnic. Anyway, Audrey and Josh, I think your house is safer than many, and it is good to be prepared. For if we are prepared we will not fear.'

All of these words helped me realize several things:

  1. I needed some other title than 'Earthquake' for this Thoughtlet. So I chose 'Earthquake Revisited.'
  2. Paul was at least partially quoting me, regarding the state capitol sliding down off of the bench.
  3. I have written enough of these Thoughtlets that I am starting to repeat myself.
  4. Maybe there is nothing else in my mind worth writing about, and maybe I better stop while I'm ahead. And
  5. Maybe it is important to repeat this topic. After all, some preparation only occurs after lots of repetition. Certainly we see this in the church lesson materials regarding the importance of keeping the commandments.

So going back to my undergraduate days in the Department of Geophysics at the University of Utah, the specific class that came to mind was a graduate level discussion group in the ethical responsibility of geoscientists regarding their responsibility concerning earthquake prediction. There is a lot of science behind earthquake prediction, and there is not much quantitative proof that any of it works. It seems that monitoring chickens and horses and animals and their reactions just prior to a major earthquake has more correlation than any of the seismic monitoring tools we use to measure earthquakes with. So, since the science is highly suspect, if scientists have reason to believe that within the next few months or years there could be a major earthquake in a specific area, should they go on the news and alarm everyone? Will there be more damage by folks overreacting to the alarm than there will be from the earthquake?

Having lived in Houston since 1980, and having listened to weathermen predict the movement of major storms wrongly, over and over, and watching them out in the wind and the rain doing the hurricane dance, I admit becoming somewhat jaundiced towards their ability to predict any major storm very well. Well, earthquakes are much lower frequency events than hurricanes, both in terms of how often they occur and in terms of how imprecise the ability to predict the events are. So does that mean scientists who warn of these dangers should be discounted and dismissed?

Obviously the prophet doesn't think so! Of course, he has other sources. For instance, the scriptures are replete with references to major earthquakes in the last days. And I do not think President Hinkley would have authorized the expenditure of as much tithing money to fix up the Tabernacle as was spent, unless he had other reasons for concern. President Hinkley has been very consistent in his reference to seismic codes regarding this expenditure.

I recall a visit to the Geophysical Department at the University of Utah back when the new Conference Center was being built, and learning that after they had broken ground, the State Geologist identified a major fault zone going right through the area. I do not recall the conversation, and it seems like he lost his job over not having notified engineers earlier. I think the State of Utah, under Governor Mike Leavitt, spent a bunch of money shoring up the State Capitol Building against possible earthquake damage. Maybe this is what Paul heard, back when he was going to school in Utah.

So, in our class we debated what is appropriate to tell the public, how the best way is to explain the prediction risks, how to avoid panic, and how to get folks to properly prepare. I do not remember our conclusions. And I remember thinking this was really important stuff. Maybe the notes are in one of the 100 boxes in the garage, not that they do anyone any good in there.

So, if I was Joshua or Audrey or Rachel or someone else living in Salt Lake City, or Matt or Aunt Sara or Uncle Des living in Cedar City, or Heather living in St. George, or Paul and Kate living just upstream from the New Madrid earthquake, the largest recorded earthquake in the United States, what would I do to prepare for the next really big one? First, did you know the series of three shocks centered near New Madrid, Missouri, in 1811-12, measured an estimated 8.5 in magnitude, and sent shock waves as far west as the Rocky Mountains and as far east as Washington, D.C. and Boston. In comparison, the January 17th 1994 Northridge, California earthquake, which left 25,000 people homeless and caused $25 billion in damage, was a magnitude 6.7 and the main shock lasted 15 seconds. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake was estimated as a magnitude 8.3 event, which lasted 45 seconds. And the 1964 Alaska earthquake was a magnitude 8.4 and lasted about 3 minutes. Anyway, here are thoughts which come to mind if you experience an earthquake:

  1. If you feel any ground movement, get outside immediately. Especially if in anything other than a one-story wood frame house or trailer. (I'd probably be attempting to take a digital movie of the movement of things around me too!) Wood frame houses have some sway in how the wood responds to horizontal earth movement. A brick veneer will crumble, because it does not have any ability to stretch and sway like a tree, so stay away from brick walls. Multistory slab buildings are particularly scary, because they can pancake like the World Trade Center did.
  2. Be prepared for the fact most earthquakes are not singular events. In other words, there will typically be two to three aftershocks within 24 hours of the first event. Although smaller, these earthquakes revisited in the same area have the potential of causing even more damage, specifically by bringing down buildings that were weakened by the initial earthquake.
  3. Have or get access to your 72 hour emergency pack,as soon as the initial earthquake settles down, keeping it close in case anything in it needed.
  4. Do not start nor drive a car until there is an all clear from emergency policemen and preparedness professionals. Two reasons for this, particularly in Salt Lake City:
    1. There could be gas line leaks, and the spark in a car engine could cause a major problem.
    2. The quick clays underlying the Salt Lake Valley will most likely buckle and destroy many of the roads, and once in the car you could become stranded for a very long time. It is best to stay put until you can review news broadcasts and understand what routes are safe to travel on.
  5. Inform loved ones you are OK. In a crisis the telephone lines, cell towers, and Internet connections tend to become overloaded. Keep trying, through whatever medium is available, to get through and share your status.
  6. Implement your evacuation plan, and go someplace safe until things have a chance to settle down and get back to normal.
  7. If it is not necessary to evacuate for personal or family safety, then get busy helping others who are not as prepared as you are, and who have not thought through their response to an earthquake revisited from virtual preparation like reading this note.

The day I was writing this, the USGS (United States Geological Survey) sent out the following news report, which very remotely applies in Cedar City (think Navajo Lake) and St. George (think Diamond Valley):

'April 10, 2007 NASA DATA SHOW EARTHQUAKES MAY QUICKLY BOOST REGIONAL VOLCANOES Scientists using NASA satellite data have found strong evidence that a major earthquake can lead to a nearly immediate increase in regional volcanic activity. The intensity of two ongoing volcanic eruptions on Indonesia's Java Island increased sharply three days following a powerful, 6.4-magnitude earthquake on the island in May 2006. The increased volcanic activity persisted for about nine days. "During this period, we found clear evidence that the earthquake caused both volcanoes to release greater amounts of heat, and lava emission surged to two to three times higher than prior to the tremor," said study lead author Andrew Harris, University of Hawaii, Honolulu. The research was recently published in the American Geophysical Union's Geophysical Research Letters. While scientists have long debated whether earthquakes can trigger new volcanic eruptions, this study linked an earthquake to enhanced volcanic activity at two ongoing eruptions that were being closely monitored by satellite-based sensors on a daily basis. At the time of the earthquake, each volcano was being checked for changes in heat output by satellite sensors as part of a routine global "hot spot" monitoring effort that uses near real-time satellite data from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites. Maps of worldwide hot spot activity are created with data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on these satellites, pinpointing locations where surface temperatures are much hotter than their surroundings. The scientists combined these data with other details about the Indonesian volcanoes gathered by the satellites to analyze temperature and lava output rates at both volcanoes over a 35-day period spanning the earthquake. The two volcanoes, Merapi and Semeru, are about 260 kilometers (162 miles) apart and roughly 50 kilometers (31 miles) north and 280 kilometers (174 miles) east of the earthquake epicenter, respectively. Given these distances, the researchers believe underground stresses from the earthquake's seismic waves likely acted to pump magma -- molten rock beneath the surface -- into the conduit to the surface, ultimately increasing eruption rates. "The responses at Merapi and Semeru lagged about three days behind the triggering earthquake, which may reflect the time it took the change felt by magma residing at deeper levels to be transmitted to the surface," said Harris. The researchers concluded that regional earthquake events have sufficient power to modify the intensity of activity at ongoing eruptions, although they may not always be able to trigger new volcanic eruptions. They also noted that the Java earthquake had a significant influence on the volcanoes for a relatively short period of several days, suggesting that catching the effect of a quake on an eruption requires careful observation. "Eruptions must be closely and continuously monitored in the days immediately before, during and after an earthquake if we are to link any earthquake with enhanced volcanic activity," added Harris. Satellite monitoring may be able to play a predictive role in eruptions, rather than just its more traditional responsive role, according to the study. Instruments on today's advanced satellites are providing new and considerably more data to help scientists better track and understand volcanic eruptions. "The satellite data we have now -- from MODIS, NASA's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer and the Landsat-7 satellite -- give us fresh insights into the behavior of volcanic systems around the entire globe," said Harris. "This worldwide perspective would not have been possible using ground-based sensors; there are too many unmonitored sectors and periods. We simply could not have uncovered our results without the continuous and global data provided by MODIS." The researchers are currently reviewing older MODIS hot spot data, which extends back to 2000, to uncover additional earthquake-induced responses at erupting volcanoes in hope of identifying patterns that might be used to build a predictive model for forecasting earthquake-induced changes in activity at erupting volcanoes.'

As far as my week, it was another week of waiting. Maybe this waiting is led my mind to earthquake revisited, or maybe it was President Hinkley's conference talk or the e-mail conversation with Paul. On Sunday I received the following e-mail from Austin:

'Roice Hope you are doing fine - trying to get a head shot of Bill for my AIA keynote along with other dignitaries I have worked with - and thought you could dig one up scan it an send it my way As usual this is due tomorrow - so anything you have would be great Pliny Pliny Fisk III Fellow Sustainable Urbanism Fellow Center for Health Systems Design Joint Appointment Architecture, Landscape Architecture, Urban Planning Texas A&M University College Station, Texas 979 – 845-1015 p. (message ) 512-563-6171 c ( emergency) Co-Director Center for Maximum Potential Building Systems 8604 FM 969 Austin, TX 78724'

I responded with:

'> Pliny, > > Nice to hear from you. I was very impressed with the writeup on Gail in > the March 26th Time magazine. Glad to see you are having success with > your work. > > I'm sure I have some better photos someplace, and the ones attached were > the ones I found. They were taken with a 3-D camera, and so there are > some vertical lines in the photos. > > I continue to play with the Walden 3D ideas, when I'm not earning a > living a a geophysicist. I'd be interested in your comments on some > material I recently put together for TAMU@Galveston's Galveston Futures > plan, which includes a photo of Bill at Biosphere 2 > (http://www.walden3d.com/Galveston/g239.html). Any way you can see of > turning this into cash so I can spend more time working on this type of thing? > > Best Regards, > > Roice > > attachment: bavinger.jpeg'

A while later Pliny responded with:

'Roice Thanks for getting back so quickly - and we are doing great and Gail's article was fantastic - Can't look at you work tonight cause I have everything due bu it is on my list. Wish Bill was around to see his picture up with some very influential people in front of 1000 + audience - he more than deserved it - I have him next to the likes of EF Shumacher, Russell Ackoff, Bucky and more. Best pliny'

Work was slow. I received the following e-mail from Melanie on Tuesday night:

'Congrats on the Jan Miller conversation... does that mean they will give you an advance?? The table looks good -I will have to read your next chapter to better understand what conclusions you are making from this chart... very inclusive and I can tell it took a lot of study... makes me realize I know very little about world religions. I bought a book once, but I haven't had time to read it. Sorry I missed calling this week... we had cousins visiting and the weekend felt very busy with conference. I agree.. it was great! Love you, Mel'

There has been no follow-up on the Jan Miller e-mail. Ever since finishing up Table 3, 'The Gods of Mankind,' I have been busy writing and converting to html Chapter 3 of 'An Open Mind.' I got the first two sections done, which turned out to be another 46 pages of text, and it took me until this the middle of the next week to get it converted to html, which is why I'm just now writing this Thoughtlet.

Wednesday we receive a wedding announcement from Susan Elizabeth Keller. She always liked Ben and Roice, and it has been fun to see her at various times over the last decade. Her reception is on the 28th of April at LDS West Road Chapel from 6:00 until 8:00 PM.

Good Friday, April 6th, was a company holiday. I was up early to work on my writing. About 11:00 Andrea and I left for Houston Museum of Natural Science to see the exhibit on 'Rome.' It is worth seeing. Lot's of original material. It surprised me how modern their tools looked. They had most of the things we had up to about 100 years ago, as is documented in the digital photos I took (see http://www.walden3d.com/photos/Trips/070406_Houston_Museums). After going to the Rome exhibit, we went to the Planetarium Show, which was about 7 Ancient Astronomers who knew the basis of things we know take for granted. We had wanted to see the French paintings at the Houston Museum of Fine Arts (HMFA), and so we walked over there. They did not have tickets until 3:00, and so we bought them and then walked to the DNR European Cafe at Montrose and I-59. I had a Beef Wrap and lentil soup, bakalava (Greek pastries), and cranberry juice. We ate outside. It was very nice. We got back to the HMFA in time to go through the other parts of the museum. There were some very interesting ancient American artifacts. I particularly liked the new exhibit of photographs of The Great Wall of China by Chen Changfen.

The Adolfo Lernier Collection of French Impressionists included the masterpieces of French Painting from the Metropolitan Museum of Art. The paintings were done from 1800 to 1920 and are described as 'The Best of the Best,' from the finest and most comprehensive collection of 19th-century French paintings in America. All of the greatest artists in France between 1800 and 1920 are represented, including Cézanne, Corot, Courbet, Degas, Delacroix, Gaugin, Ingres, Manet, Matisse, Millet, Modigliani, Monet, Picasso, Pissarro, Renoir, Seurat, Sisley, Toulouse-Lautrec, and Van Goh. The exhibition traces the development of Neoclassicism to Cubism, including society portraits and landscapes by the realists. It was very nice, and the art work was very interesting. As we were leaving, I told Andrea I had two thoughts:

  1. I did not take any digital photos of any of the French paintings. They were nice, and none of them caught my interest to the point of wanting a digital photo on the web site. However, I did take numerous digital photos at the Rome Exhibit, and a couple of the Great Wall of China photographs. Also we bought a $45 book of the China Great Wall photos. It is worth seeing the paintings, even though there was not a big connection for me. Maybe it was the nudes. Maybe it was the air of sophistication. Maybe it was overblown.
  2. If I had one room in this hall, and had the 8 paintings Ken Turner has done so far for you kids, actually if I had all 12, as are in my mind, and as will be done some day, and had the same crowd go through and listen to a description of each painting, look at the paintings, and consider the messages they share, I'm convinced more of them would be more deeply touched than were touched by this "One Time Only!" and "Best of the Best" exhibitions. Of course, I recognize I'm biased. It was a very nice day, and I thoroughly enjoyed spending the time with Andrea with nothing to rush us. We didn't get home until about 7:00 PM, after stopping at Cornelius' for flowers and mulch and such. Then it was back to work on 'An Open Mind.'

Saturday morning we started on the yard early because there was predicted rain. Unlike an earthquake revisited, they were pretty accurate as to when the rainstorm hit. I was cleaned up and working at the computer when Andrea finished up and came in when it started to rain. Marc Roulston came over in the afternoon and spent a couple of hours working with me on some systems things. Andrea and I spent the rest of the day working on our projects.

Sunday was OK. We met early at the church for choir practice. The Primary sang a song, and the choir sang two songs for the Easter program. My Primary Class was wired from Easter candy. Oh well! In addition to a lesson on The Holy Ghost, we practiced 'Froggie Learns The Gospel' for Latter-Day Night Live, which is on Saturday the 21st of April (see 0717.html). I spent the rest of the day working on my project. In the evening we called Sarah J. Nelson in Calgary and sang her Happy Birthday. During this phone conversation we were able to have the first digital photo transferred to our Ceiva Frame which Ben and Sarah gave us for Christmas. Now that it works and now that I have this Thoughtlet written, I need to send out an e-mail to everyone inviting you to send us your digital photos (see 0715.html). It is fun to wake up in the morning and to see what new photos have been downloaded over night. Much more fun than thinking or worring about an earthquake revisited.'

Since the 38th week of 1996 I have written a weekly "Thoughtlet" (little statements of big thoughts which mean a lot to me). Until the 43rd week of 2004 I sent these out as an e-mail. They were intended to be big thoughts which mean a lot to me. Over time the process evolved into a personal diary. These notes were shared with my family because I know how important the written word can be. Concerned about how easy it is to drift and forget our roots and our potential among all of distractions of daily life, I thought this was a good way to reach those I love. It no longer feels right to send out an e-mail and "force" my kids and my family to be aware of my life and struggles.

Everyone has their own life to lead, and their own struggles to work through. I will continue this effort, and will continue to make my notes publicly accessible (unless I learn of misuse by someone who finds out about them, and then will aggressively pursue a legal remedy to copyright infringement and I will put the Thoughtlets behind a password).

The index to download any of these Thoughtlets is at http://www.walden3d.com/thoughtlets, or you can e-mail me with questions or requests at rnelson@walden3d.com (note if you are not on my e-mail "whitelist" you must send 2 e-mails within 24 hours of each other in order for your e-mail to not be trashed).

With all my love,
Dad
(H. Roice Nelson, Jr.)

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Copyright © 2007 H. Roice Nelson, Jr.