22 May 2005 #0521.html

Dead Battery

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Dear Family and Friends,

Welcome to this week's "Thoughtlet."

These words are my personal diary and a weekly review of ideas, beliefs, thoughts, or words that will hopefully be of some benefit to you: my children, my family, and my friends.

"A dead battery seems a funny thing to write about after writing about a second major change in the vector of my life. Oh well! Life is full of false starts and full stops. And there is nothing like a dead battery to bring things to a full stop.

Monday Rachel arrived for a brief visit. I have in my notes the words `Might not come back,' and do not remember the context for writing this. That evening was my turn for Family Home Evening. I choose to write about genealogy, since I had been working on typing in all of the data in my four generation sheets to turn into the Bishop as part of his challenge to the ward. It was an interesting discussion, and Andrea really got into the discussion when she talked about her ancestors. We had not talked much since I treated her rudely at the City Creek Motel in Salt Lake (0519.html) on the Saturday morning after Audrey's reception.

Tuesday morning when I went out to leave for work was when I found the blue car had a dead battery. It was inconvenient for Andrea to get it fixed, so I took the old battery out, went to the auto parts shop, bought a new battery for about $25, came back, cleaned off all of the corrosion, and put the new battery back in. It ended up taking me a lot longer than I thought it would, and I did not make it to the office until about 10:00 AM. Oh well! Dave Johnson saw me as I was coming in, and when I gave my excuse, he said, `I do not keep up on those kinds of things.'

Wednesday Dave gave a lunch talk to GDC employees about the work we have been doing in China. It was well received, and he did a very good job. We had beef stir fry for dinner.

Thursday Scott Smith was in from Detroit to work on the dTIPS application. Mike Dunn took several of us to lunch, and I had a very good salmon salad. There were several inituitives I had been working on that all seemed to come to a dead end this week. I've included text from various e-mails below to make the point why this week seemed like a dead battery on many fronts:

Dear Grier, Thank you for calling back. Several investment opportunities with significant financial upsides are available through Geophysical Development Corporation (GDC), Dynamic Resources Corporation (DRC), or Walden 3-D, Incorporated (W3D). I will summarize the range of opportunities in this note, so you can use your investment filter to determine if you have any interest in discussions. My tendency is to work at the bleeding edge of oil and gas exploration technologies, as summarized on the attached resume. The issue investors have with this focus is the downsides of (1) little historical cash flow, (2) only IP asset collateral, and (3) working where contracted pro forma cash flows are typically not yet available. The positive side is that we know the oil industry, we are committed to working in the oil industry (see the quote in the recent Economist article on the oil and gas industry the week of May 1st), and we know who to put together as a virtual team to optimally pursue specific opportunities investors are interested in. First, a description of the commercial vehicles. GDC was formed in 1982 when Fred Hilterman left the University of Houston, where he had hired me to manage The Seismic Acoustics Laboratory. Over the past 20 years GDC has consistently been a technology leader in providing geophysical services, specifically inventing AVO (Amplitude-vs-Offset), which is a seismic processing and well log modeling technique for direct detection of hydrocarbons. GDC's sister company, Quantum Geophysical, which is also owned by Geokinetics, Inc., a NASDAQ over-the-counter bulletin board public company, has three land seismic crews which operate in the lower 48 states. Geokinetics has about 250 employees and is one of the few full service geophysical contractors not yet purchased by Halliburton or Schlumberger. I anticipate an investor could purchase these three companies for 1+ times earnings. DRC was formed in January 2001 to demonstrate a networked virtual oil company. We packaged about 60 exploration opportunities ranging from rank wildcats to exploitation of proven fields. We never had any investment, and so I still own 100% of DRC. We also never had the cash to purchase leases and actively pursue the opportunities we identified. When personal cash flow required, I put DRC on the back burner and took a job with my old colleagues at GDC. I retained the rights to exploit the technologies and exploration opportunities developed at DRC and W3D. DRC was established as a vehicle to enable risk calibrated investment in the exploration side of the oil industry. W3D is my personal business incubator and consulting firm, which was put together back in 1989 and incorporated in May of 1990. You can read about a few of our activities at http://www.walden3d.com. W3D is and always will be 100% owned by myself. Second, a summary of the investment vehicles. Geokinetics provides a positive cash-flow investment option. There will be over $50 million in cash flow in 2005. With high prices, the geophysical contractor industry should start to expand again. Competition is tough, including the Chinese (BGP, the Bureau of Geophysical Prospecting), the French (Schlumberger and CGG), Halliburton, and numerous small shops. One option is to consolidate several small acquisition and processing shops into a more competitive U.S. geophysical contractor. The better option is to strategically use GDC and Quantum technologies for proprietary advantage in exploration, which can be done without a purchase and through a couple of long-term services contracts with an exploration company. DRC is a viable vehicle for pursuing an active exploration program (see http://www.walden3d.com/d). Given an investment of $10-25 million, DRC will provide ranked exploration opportunities worldwide, depending on investor focus. We have a 100 million barrel opportunity in Illinois, a 50 million barrel opportunity in Michigan, and numerous other opportunities in Colorado, Wyoming, West Virginia, the Gulf Coast, etc. Some of these opportunities are at the same scale as the recent overthrust discovery near Richfield, Utah. The next step on many of these opportunities is to pursue a leasing program The investor(s) would own 100% of all leases and discoveries until receiving a predefined return on their initial investment, after which DRC and participating network members would become a 50% partner. For instance, investor return might be 200% if paid in the first year, 300% return if paid in the second year, or 400% return if paid in the third year or beyond. DRC has retired presidents and chief scientists of major oil companies who will act as a vetting filter for ranking and jointly deciding with the investor which opportunities to pursue. W3D (http://www.walden3d.com) provides a virtual general contractor for technology R&D and implementing urban planning experiments. For instance, we have spent a half a dozen years working with FSI Services Ltd. (http://www.fullspectralimaging.com) to develop a business plan for capturing, hosting, and distributing over the Internet high resolution, color calibrated and dimensionally stable images of both drill cuttings and slabbed core. FSI Services is close to major contracts with Pemex (Mexico) and Petronas (Malaysia), and an investment document is available upon request. This technology has the opportunity to make the same fundamental change for geologists and petrophysicists which 3-D seismic made for geophysicists in the 1980's. More radical research projects relates to gas hydrates, which are by orders of magnitude the largest mineable source of hydrocarbons on the planet, or solar chimneys. There is a 3 TCF (trillion cubic feet) thermogeneic gas hydrate plug near the Conoco-Phillips deep water Joliet Platform in the Gulf of Mexico, which has a pipeline and other necessary infrastructure for a practical experiment. Building a geodesic umbrella over this deposit (http://www.asidesign.com), and dissolving the gas hydrate plug with hot water or microwave technologies controlled by NASA's Robonaut could provide a whole new source of energy for the U.S. Or imagine expanding on a 1981 experiment in Manzananes, Spain and the plans to build a 1 km (0.62 mile) tower in Mildera, Australia to generate 200 megawatts, or enough energy for 200,000 homes. A 2 1/2 mile diameter greenhouse at the base will feed hot air into the tower where 32 wind turbines will generate power. Australian costs of A$750 million can be substantially reduced by building this type of solar chimney up the side of a mountain in the Western U.S. Third, a summary of interest. The network behind this e-mail has spent multiple careers developing best practices and becoming the most experienced scientists in our industry. We are interested in finding an investor who can catch the vision of the opportunities we can provide. For instance, I just returned from my 33rd trip to China, where we demonstrated to some of the largest oil fields in the world that we can use GDC AVO technologies to directly detect hydrocarbons in their fields. I believe the opportunities are limitless, and simply need to be pursued using a logical, risked, ranked, and vetted process. Everybody is smarter than anybody, and we have collected a unique team of professionals which truly trusts each other and which knows our limitations. We are interested in finding a financial partner who shares our values and catches our vision. I look forward to learning the results of the application of your investment filter to this e-mail. Best Regards, Roice Nelson cell: 713.542.2207 attachment: resume Don and Luis, A brief report on what I heard in conversations with each of you. Don has created some new volumetrics based on the Mexican data. These are available if it will help sell his processing in Mexico. Luis has been pursuing the $2 million contract, and has not pursued the NRG / STR processing yet. He can not get any money for it anyway, until the contract is signed. He will pursue Vossler's processing over the next few weeks. It would be helpful to have the new volumetrics data. Don has created a white paper on using his technology to identify fizz gas. Don I would love to give you feedback on the paper, and I do not have a copy. I anticipate Luis would also be very interested in providing you feedback. Luis's contact information is: Luis Viertel, 011.52.899.934.5166, cell 1: 011.52.8991.57.0593. Don's contact information is: Don Vossler, 281.437.9144, cell: 281.650.7730. Best Regards, Roice Michael, Lot's can happen when one is gone for four weeks. I did not make it to Tibet this trip, and so I did not use any of the data you kindly sent to me, yet. I was so busy before I left I did not get a chance to tell you I can not open the cover.msw and sect1_intro.msw files. I briefly reviewed the other files the night before I left. What a neat project. I would like to get a copy of the files I could not open before I go back in a month or so, which is hopefully when we will go to Tibet. As the note from Mike Dun, copied below shows, it looks like there is progress on your funding. Is there anything you need us to be doing to prepare for starting work? This is now real enough I would like to get a scope of work you expect from GDC so I can put it into our operations plan. On my way home from China and a daughter's wedding in Salt Lake, I was in Washington for a couple of days last week at the IEOS Public Engagement Workshop sponsored by the Interagency working group on Earth Observations (IW-GEO). Most of the information can be obtained from www.strategies.org, and I expect there is a lot of overlap with your project. I further expect there is some value with you contacting nancy_colleton@strategies.org to explore this overlap. For instance, the leader of the Energy Break Out Group was from the Department of Transportation. Hope your funding bill finally passes in the next couple of weeks and that we can get after working together. Best Regards, Roice Dr. Pearlman, Thank you for spending time with me last week at the IEOS Public Engagement Workshop. I was fascinated with your non-reaction to the research ideas shared with you, and how our conversation stopped after you read the page. This note is a request for a reaction to the ten ideas shared with you, now that you have had a week to background think about anything which was of interest. Certainly Phantom Works is involved in research projects at the scale referenced. The opportunity I would like to explore is whether a group of talented and experienced geoscientists can be of support to your efforts. We know how to keep a secret securely secret. We are interested in expanding our services, and see discussions with Boeing and the government as a strategic opportunity. Are the first exploratory steps a confidentiality agreement and security clearance? Thank you in advance for your comments. Best Regards, Roice Nelson Grier, Thanks for following up. I did receive your note yesterday. I look forward to working with Eric. I have never focused on the financial side, although I have made millions of dollars (some say hundreds of millions of dollars) for others. I anticipate with Eric's 8 years of experience and his financial background, and my 35+ years of exploration and technology experience, we will learn a lot from each other. As I referenced in my first note, the quote in the April 30-May 6 issue of The Economist, in the section labeled "The bottomless beer mug," points to the fact most oil company management has been replaced by MBA's who understand business risk and who do not understand geologic risk. The result has been exploration on Wall Street, where these folks are comfortable, rather than seeking a new overthrust trend, like the one Wolverine recently proved in Utah (see attached map). The discovery well, the 17-1 King Meadow Ranch, hit 1,000 feet of Navajo Sandstone in late 2003. This well began producing in May 2004 at 900 barrels per day, and, with a second well, Wolverine has produced over 210,000 barrels of good quality, 40 degree gravity crude less than a year. At US$50/barrel, this is in excess of US$10 million for the first year of the first of a conservatively anticipated 10 fields in the new trend. Given 10 years production and 10 new fields, this adds up to a real interesting return for investors. Especially if the funders retain 50% ownership and are able to double or triple their initial investment before sharing any upside with the finders. To stress the importance of my last e-mail, my response to your invitation was to open the door, with a generous business model, for Prospect Energy Corporation to exceed the returns Wolverine is making, while assisting in the reinvention of the oil industry as a virtual corporation. And we have the technical expertise in our network to help with your e-mail issues. To be specific, I expect I can have one or more of my colleagues in New York visit your office as my trusted representative later today or tomorrow to answer questions and provide references, if this would be helpful. I look forward to hearing from Eric, and to taking the next steps in this discussion. Best Regards, Roice Dr. Eckman, It was a pleasure to meet you at the IEOS Public Engagement Workshop last week. You requested some contact information for the key profession societies in oil and gas exploration and production. They are: - Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG), www.seg.org, President Craig J. Beasley, cbeasley@seg.org, 713.689.5814. - American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), www.aapg.org, President Patrick J.F. Gratton, pjfginc@aol.com, 800.364.2274. - Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), www.spe.org, President Giovanni Paccaloni, president@spe.org, 800.456.6863. I know Craig, but not the others. For your reference, between the 250 employees of the company I work for, Geokinetics, Inc. and its subsidiaries Geophysical Development Corporation (GDC) and Quantum Geophysical, we have extremely strong ties to most aspects of the upstream energy industry. The company is interested in expanding our services, and I see discussions with NASA and the government as a strategic opportunity, which is why I was at the workshop. Is there an opportunity for a group of talented and experienced geoscientists to support to your efforts to distribute NASA technology to the energy industry? Rather than spending technology transfer dollars through NASA personnel (which accurate accounting would show to be very expensive), is there an opportunity to outsource the energy portion of this technology transfer to a technology company like GDC? Alternatively, are there energy research areas we could work with NASA on? You mentioned that there are 3 year projects which are funded to the tune of $250,000 per year. I went to http://nspires.nasaprs.com and reviewed the opportunities there. The only study I saw with energy in the title was A.11 NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study. You mentioned there were only a few submittals for energy related research projects. Could you point me to these research projects? It seems to me like NASA would get more bang for the buck by opening up bids for industry generated proposals, and then selecting those that relate to NASA priorities. For instance, I have had discussions with John E. James IV of JSC's office of Technology Transfer and Commercialization for a couple of years regarding Robonaut. I've been told we will receive a license to use this technology for deep water exploration and oil field fire fighting. My key commercial idea is related to gas hydrates, which are, by orders of magnitude, the largest known source of hydrocarbons on planet earth. There is a 3 TCF (trillion cubic feet) thermogenic gas hydrate plug near the Conoco-Phillips deepwater Joilet Platform in the Gulf of Mexico, which has a pipeline and other necessary infrastructure for a practical experiment. Building a geodesic umbrella over this deposit (similar to geodesic habitats needed for the moon and Mars), and dissolving the gas hydrate plug with hot water or microwave technologies (the people at JSC tell me NASA has several patents in this area) controlled by NASA's Robonaut (what better way to practice working in space than in the hostile environment of deep water) could demonstrate a whole new source of energy for the U.S. How would one go about getting NASA's attention on an idea like this? Good luck on your presentations, and I look forward to your comments. Best Regards, Roice Nelson Mike, Mike Dunn was telling me about your Japanese client looking for Gas Hydrates. This is an area I did quite a bit of work in before come to GDC. The attached three files demonstrate there is a possible link between known volcanos and known gas hydrates. This connection might be as simple as temperature, or as complex as abiotic hydrocarbon seeps from the mantle. I'm not sure you want to pass this on to your Japanese connection immediately, but the map shows there has been some thinking about how to approach gas hydrate exploration globally. A key commercial idea related to gas hydrates is related to a 3 TCF (trillion cubic feet) thermogenic gas hydrate plug near the Conoco-Phillips deepwater Joilet Platform in the Gulf of Mexico. There is a pipeline and other necessary infrastructure for a practical experiment here. Building a geodesic umbrella over this deposit, and dissolving the gas hydrate plug with hot water or microwave technologies controlled by NASA's Robonaut (which I'm suppose to have a exclusive license to use in deep water, which I will actively pursue with a commercial driver) will prove the value of gas hydrates. My colleagues at Cornell can get us in front of the folks who control this deposit. Given money for a research project, I believe we can take this project over. Good luck and let me know if I can be of any help. Best Regards, Roice cc: Mike Dunn Bill, My colleague Sam LeRoy provided the information below. Geophysical Development Corporation (www.geodev.com) would love to enter into a long term contract to support your work on the Yamal Peninsula. Let me know if I can be of further help. Best Regard, Roice Sam LeRoy wrote: > Roice, > > Bill Bosler may want to look into these programs: > > NEOTECHNOLOGY CONSULTANTS LTD. ("Neotec") > FORGAS Gas Field Deliverability Forecasting and Development Scheduling > http://www.neotec.com/prod.html > > eProduction Solutions, Inc. > WellFlo modeling program: > http://www.ep-solutions.com/Solutions/EPS/WellFlo.htm > > EnSys Yocum PVT Properties Program > http://www.ensysenergy.com/Yocum%20Software.htm > > IHS Energy > OilWatTM/GasWatTM Material balance analysis > http://www.ihsenergy.com/products/producingsystems/oilwatgaswat/index.jsp > > ... Sam Scott, Sorry I have been out of pocket so long. I just reviewed the web pages. They look very nice, and very much like they did before with the new connections. For instance there must be a different page for processing and for interpretation. What happened regarding the approval process? We need to get that set up, so different people can be assigned to keep up with things. For instance, Quantum had a helicopter crash this morning, and negative as it is, it should be on our news page, specifically with a daily update on the health of the employees. Two were injured, and one was life flighted to the hospital with a serious head injury. It will be on Good-Morning Today tomorrow, and we should be ready to react to this kind of spike event. Also, what happend to my IG experience map? Have you done any work on this? Dave is very interested in this, and this has the potential of being a very big issue within the next week or so. So be ready. Come and see me when you have a chance. Best Regards, Roice Marjorie, It was a pleasure to meet you at the IEOS Public Engagement Workshop last week. As requested I have spent some time at http://esg.gsfc.nasa.gov. It appears there is a lot of interesting information there, and, for me, it is unusable. Zooming in on the satellite photos was terrible. The screen kept jumping back to the top left corner, and then it was necessary to scroll to the area of interest. It was not possible to tell what different types of data were available at the various scales. Please compare this navigation approach to one I use for project work, a semi-public version of which is at: http://www.walden3d.com/d/ig. There are some public links to project work for the Cook Inlet and Nigeria. These pages are based on my Infinite Grid(SM) index system. It is easy to navigate to an area of interest, and then you can zoom in as much as you want. A newer version of this is one of the indices to a book I work on every once in a while. It is at http://www.walden3d.com/openmind/AIV/index.html. Note how the more detailed index, which is at http://www.walden3d.com/openmind/AIV/IG4_index.html, goes to a page that will eventually give lists of information and links related to a specific spatial location. I think it is useful, and I look forward to your comments, or the comments of others at NASA about whether you agree. The text document searching was extremely slow, and once I was in there, I could not get back out to the starting page. It was necessary to re-enter the original page I typed in. Very frustrating. I anticipate the government shouldn't try to compete with commercial operations like amazon.com or google.com, and this web site is set up to do that. It makes sense to me to outsource the commercial front-end to the NASA Earth-Sun System Gateway to someone like amazon.com or google.com, who have strong commercial drivers to make portals work for the end-user. There is no question but what they would do it for a small percentage of sales. As you can see, I write what I think. Hopefully these words are not offensive. I also like to hear what others think. I'm interested in your reaction to my white paper on indices, as well as your reaction to these comments. Best Regards, Roice Nelson

To summarize why these are e-mails are like dead batteries:

Friday morning I was listening to the Pat Gray show as I went into work. He quoted the Judge in the Michael Jackson trial as saying `Larry King is irrelevant' and then said, `Don't tell me that all of the judges are out of control. This judge is right on track!' It got me laughing for a minute, for the first time this week. Friday night Rachel, Matt, Andrea, and I went to see Star Wars III - Revenge of the Sith. It was OK.

Saturday I was still reading papers, mail, e-mail, and catching up from having been gone a month. When Sara Ellyn gave me two wallet photos of her when she graduated from High School I stuck them in the mirror where I shave. When Matt went to his first Junior High dance and gave me a wallet photo, I stuck it there also. Every morning since these events, when I have shaved, I have looked at these photos and said a prayer for those I love. There was also a ticket to the Nauvoo Temple Dedication broadcast (../0226.html). I took them all off of the mirror and put them with my scrapbook stuff. I guess it is time to let go and just continue to hope my prayers can make a difference with the free agency of those I love. There were also some conversations with Paul about the Ken Turner painting of `Nephi's Vision' and the frame that was still at the Cedar City Welfare Center. I had forgot to call during the week. Paul was leaving Provo, and I was emotionally overwhelmed with all that was wrong with my life. Upon reflection, I guess it is easier to change out an automobile's dead battery than it is to change out an emotional dead battery.

Saturday evening we had just gone to bed when we heard a large crash sound. Initially we thought Rachel must have fallen in the shower. Then Matt went outside and said their was a car wrecked in our neighbors yard. He went outside, and Andrea and I both went and got dressed and rushed outside. The bottom line is that there was a murder in front of our house. The specific points that we know several weeks later are:

Sunday I was emotionally tied in knots. George Schultz was one of the Sacrament speakers. I enjoyed his comments and derived the following two possible Prime Words stanzas from his talk:

`Perfection and sanctification Go together in the gospel Be ye therefore perfect Is a call to greatness' `The Lord Jesus Christ Sets the standard of perfection Live the spirit of the law And let the Lord be the judge'

I was so stressed out about the murder that I went and cornered President Pickerd and Bishop Camp after sacrament meeting and told them about what had happened. I didn't do a very good job of explaining my concerns. What I was trying to say is that this seems like a warning to me. Possibly it is just ego, and yet I feel like I'm a bellwether to things like problems with having computers in your home, divorce, and now violence. It seems like I have always thought that my background with the meat packing plant and the byproducts plant was preparation for something very hard in the future. I recall a revelation President Taylor had and that was recorded in President Woodruff's journals about how bad it is going to be the next time the saints migrate to the west (Journal of Wilford Woodruff, Dec 16, 1877, pp. 179-183, Pioneer Press). Then there is the dream that Ken Turner had that there are going to be thousands of tents out by his house in New Ulm, the implication being New Ulm will be a staging area for helping the Saints leave trouble. Anyway, I'm a camper, and we have an emergency kit, and if there is a weapon of mass destruction set off in Houston we will do our best to get along and to help as many people as we can to get along also. I also told my High Priest Quorum what had happened at the beginning of quorum meeting.

Then Sunday evening we went to Seminary Graduation, and a young man named Tyler Juergens from Copperfield Ward provided words for the following additional possible Prime Words stanzas:

`Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John Four views of the same events To help us know He lived And still lives and loves us'

And hopefully, as has been the case in the past, the church, the scriptures, prayer, and my Savior's love will provide the recharge to my sometimes emotionally dead battery."

Since the 38th week of 1996 I have written a weekly "Thoughtlet" (little statements of big thoughts which mean a lot to me). Until the 43rd week of 2004 I sent these out as an e-mail. They were intended to be big thoughts which mean a lot to me. Over time the process evolved into a personal diary. These notes were shared with my family because I know how important the written word can be. Concerned about how easy it is to drift and forget our roots and our potential among all of distractions of daily life, I thought this was a good way to reach those I love. It no longer feels right to send out an e-mail and "force" my kids and my family to be aware of my life and struggles. Everyone has their own life to lead, and their own struggles to work through. I will continue this effort, and will continue to make my notes publicly accessible (unless I learn of misuse by someone who finds out about them, and then will aggressively pursue a legal remedy to copyright infringement and I will put the Thoughtlets behind a password). The index to download any of these Thoughtlets is at http://www.walden3d.com/thoughtlets, or you can e-mail me with questions or requests at rnelson@walden3d.com (note if you are not on my e-mail "whitelist" you must send 2 e-mails within 24 hours of each other in order for your e-mail to not be trashed).

With all my love,
Dad
(H. Roice Nelson, Jr.)

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Copyright © 2005 H. Roice Nelson, Jr.