29 Sep 2002 #0239.html

What if ... ?

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Dear Paul and Kate, Melanie and Jared, Bridget and Justin, Sara, Ben and Sarah, Heather, Audrey, Rachel, and Matt via hardcopy,

cc: file, Tony Hafen, Pauline Nelson via mail, Sara and Des Penny, and Maxine Shirts

Welcome to "Thoughtlets." This is a weekly review of an idea, belief, thought, or words that will hopefully be of some benefit to you, my children, with an electronic copy to on-line extended family members. Any of you can ask me not to clutter your mail box at any time.

"It's been another slow week in Lake Wobegone. More of the same. On Sunday Pastor Jasper taught the High Priest Quorum. A few weeks ago I mentioned Curtis Jasper recently moved to the Nottingham Country Ward from Coeur d'Alene, Idaho (0228.html), where Andrea's brother Robert was their kid's seminary teacher. His lesson was part of the Teachings for Our Times series. He talked about things familes can do to face the challenges today: family home evening, family prayer, family councils, family work, etc. Good lesson, and I bring it up because he quoted his Grandmother as saying, `You can't judge how well they are doing until how well they raise their children,' and followed up with `For some of us, you can't tell how well we are doing until after we raise our grandchildren.'

Hopefully some of the positive parts of my life are going to reach out across the generations. I know after I sent the Niger Delta thoughtlet earlier this week, I couldn't help but second guess myself and say `What if I would have said this or that instead of that or this.' I don't know if this happens to you kids, but I often find myself second guessing myself and asking `What if?' questions. And as I get older, I don't think it does much good to ask these questions, particularly when looking back. It can be useful self training to consider different options looking forward, and yet even then it is often too easy to create a paralysis of analysis and end up not doing anything because we are asking too many `What if ...?'

I apologize for how I have been writing about my failures. It was pointed out to me this week that when I write about my failures, I am too often writing about not teaching the principles I believe in in a manner which encourages those I love to adopt them, i.e. I'm beating you over the head about church involvement. I apologize. This is not what the gospel of Jesus Christ, the restoration, nor what the gospel of love are all about. I will strive to clean up my writing. I do appreciate feedback, and particularly when I slip back into unproductive patterns which have gone on for years.

One of the things I have not done it to express how proud I am of those of you who have found the same truths I have found. Paul, it is wonderful you made the sacrifice of serving a mission, as is your ongoing current service in the Bishopric. You are already a much better man for having made these choices. Certainly a much better man than you were going to be based on my `What if ...' projections from your High School vectors.

Melanie, I apologize if I have not told you specifically, personally, and in this semi-public forum, how proud I am of your choice to be married for time and eternity in The House of The Lord, and for your on-going efforts to live in a manner compatible with returning to mansions prepared for you in our Father's house.

Heather, I know divorce is hard. I feel like you don't think I like you. If I'm right about this, you are wrong! Hopefully you can hear my words across the miles and across the years and across the big differences in our experience base: I AM VERY PROUD OF HOW YOU HAVE PICKED UP AND GOT ON WITH YOUR LIFE, AND PARTICULARLY OF YOUR TESTIMONY AND DESIRE TO FOLLOW THE PROPHET. Bridget, it is uncomfortable for me to tell me how proud I am of you and Justin, because I do not want to offend my wonderful sister and brother-in-law. I believe you know, and that you read between the lines.

Audrey, thanks for accepting me, and I'm sorry I have been the cause of pain in your young life. I want the best for you, and I am very proud to be your step-father. You work harder than anyone else your age I know, and, in case you didn't know, I like hard workers.

Rachel, you are my buddy. It was a joy to have you in the house, and I miss you. I'm sorry you are ill, and hope you get better soon. You bring so many smiles to everyone, especially me, and I hope you know I cried when you bore your testimony just before you left. I'm sorry I don't do phones very well, and it is fun to hear about your dates and the things you are doing through Andrea.

Matt, I worry about you, and yet I don't worry. I can't believe your grades have gone to 80's and 90's, and you are getting so tall and handsome. I wish you would sit with us at church, and I'm very glad you choose to attend. For what it is worth, I know it is true, and if you keep on the track you are on, I know you will find this out for yourself. Someday you will also wake up to lots of friends, and work you really enjoy. Just keep plugging away.

I did not write the above words just because it has been a slow week in Lake Wobegone. I realized they needed to be said, and hope they are taken by all of you with the same spirit they are given. I could spend all night worrying about `What if someone is offended because I didn't mention them?' Or `What if they they can't see I love them, whether they are active in the church or not?' Or `What if this is just the basis for another failure in relationship building?' OR ... Or ... or ... .

I guess my comments were prompted by a couple of responses received this week, which among other things, pointed out I am always directing negative comments towards this person or that person. I know Roice and Rob requested to not receive the Thoughtlets, and by implication specifically because the words I write were directed to them. I anticipate that when they come back and read them at some time in the future they will both realize I did not change my message, nor what I am attempting to share after they signed off. In some sense I feel in good company. Most of the Old Testament prophets were killed for calling folks to repentance. It is normal to get upset if the things being said are a little close to home, and if for any reason you don't feel good about choices. What is wrong is if it is a willful shaming and blaming, which is a weakness I struggle with. What I hope comes across, is I am only calling for repentance in things the prophets and apostles have called on all of us to do. When I use this media, or any other forum, to `brow beat' one of you to accept my beliefs, I am in the wrong, and I should be called to repentance. And like J. Golden Kimball, I, and hopefully each of you, will strive to stay out of hell because we `repent too damn fast.'

Sunday afternoon Matt and I went Home Teaching. We visited the Riches, Hayden Hudson, and our new family, the Jaspers from Coeur d'Alene, Idaho. It was a good afternoon, and the hard part was attempting to write my Thoughtlet about the Niger Delta (0238.html). On Monday I had an e-mail from Price Waterhouse in Beijing. They had called a few weeks ago, while I was working on the marginal field interpretations, and we had talked for a couple of hours about a contract they were submitting to PetroChina. They are talking about me spending considerable time in Beijing helping them get their project off the ground. Hopefully I will be able to negotiate extra plane tickets to fullfill the promise made a few months ago (0220.html). Paul and Kate, you are at the top of the list (www.walden3d.com/thoughtlets/china.txt), and don't pack your bags yet. When I told Andrea her first response was `What if all of this stuff you have going comes in?' I recall the story of briar rabbit, `Oh, please, please don't throw me in the briar patch.'

My week was pretty much like last week. I did work late Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday nights. I finished a whole new section of the OPL-229 seismic interpretation, and created some really good images for Jude. The biggest structural anomally they had mapped before last week was less than 6,000 acres. With 100 feet of pay, very conservative for the Niger Delta, and 500 barrels per acre-foot, this translates into 300 million barrels. If they make $5 gross profit per ballel, this is $1.5 billion. I mapped a 36,000+ acre StratAmp anomally, where the possible submarine fan I identified just before we went to Nigeria is located. This increases the potential by a factor of 7, to over $10 billion gross profit, and this is from 2 of what I expect to end up being 30 exploration drilling locations. It is a lot of fun to do this work, and like each of you, I can't really comprehend the numbers I am talking about. If there are 400 grains of sand one layer thick in a 1 inch square, it means there are 8,000 in a 1 inch cube. This means there are 1,250,000 cubic inches of sand to make up 10+ billion sand grains. Someone check me. I think this is over 26 cubic yards of sand, and we typically get 5 cubic yards delivered when we get mulch or sand dumped at the house. What if it does all come in? Will we get proud and go off the deep end? I hope not.

On Wednesday night, I worked until about midnight, and I came home very frustrated. I had not made the StratAmp maps yet. However, I had figured out some very complex faulting in the Elepa area. The problem was that the faulting changed the KK structure, possibly cutting a 5,600 acre prospect into a 2,500 acre prospect. Interpretation is like that. The data doesn't lie, and it is not easy to get a consistant picture that ties all of the different views into the data. It is a game of asking `What if ... ?' By noon on Thursday when I had made more complete maps, the figures were back in the range Jude had seen before. As I was describing the process to him, he said, `Broda, these numbers are fine. Why do you have such a frown on your face?' He said something similar when I called him at 8:00 last night and gave him the next to the final report prior to his visit to Europe and the Middle East next week.

I had received an e-mail from Bob Burton earlier in the week asking for the status of MKS. Horace was in Alaska visiting his granddaughter, and it was Friday when he called back. They have two groups which have agreed to fund them, and he expects everything to close in the next two to three months. As we were falling asleep, I remembered to tell Andrea. Her response was, `Roice, what if all of this comes in?' My response was, `You can't have it both ways. You can't be worried there are not jobs going to come in, and then be worried there are too many jobs coming in a few weeks later. Don't worry! Be happy!' And we went to sleep.

Yesterday I skipped choir practice and went for run. I made it from Emerald Green to Greenwind Chase to Baker to Kingsland to Greenhouse. This is the first time I've been able to run 4 km since hurting my ankle the first of the year. I spent the rest of the day in front of the Landmark workstation, asking `What if ... ?' and creating images for Jude's trip. Andrea went to the Women's Conference broadcast in the evening, and so I stayed and finished what I had been working on in the southeast portion of OPL-229.

So despite my run-on ramblings, I hope each of you who read this and attempted to get in my head takes away is to measure how and under exactly what circumstance you ask the question `What if ...?'"

I'm interested in sharing weekly a "thoughtlet" (little statements of big thoughts which mean a lot to me) with you because I know how important the written word can be. I am concerned about how easy it is to drift and forget our roots and our potential among all of distractions of daily life. To download any of these thoughtlets go to http://www.walden3d.com/thoughtlets or e-mail me at rnelson@walden3d.com.

With all my love,
Dad
(H. Roice Nelson, Jr.)

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Copyright © 2002 H. Roice Nelson, Jr.