. . . Replenishing the Earth

or

A Relationship Between
Peak Oil,
High Gasoline Prices,

and

L.D.S. Food Storage


· Slide001Replenishing the Earth
· Slide002Three LDS Views of the Near Future
· Slide003Definition of LDS Food Storage
· Slide004Definition of High Gasoline Prices?
· Slide005Definition of Peak Oil
· Slide006What does Peak Oil mean?
· Slide007Background
· Slide008Reasons for This Presentation
· Slide009ASPO Houston Conference October 17th-20th, 2007
· Slide010Agenda of ASPO Houston Conference October 17th-20th, 2007
· Slide011ASPO Overview Talks
· Slide012Spare Capacity and Demand
· Slide013Oil Shockwave
· Slide014The General Model
· Slide015Oil Production in Lower 48 States
· Slide016European Oil Production
· Slide017Difference between IOCs and NOCs
· Slide018Peak Oil & Exporter Strategies
· Slide019Maximum World Oil Production Scenario
· Slide020Worldwide Crash Mitigation Program
· Slide021Mitigation Starting Year of Decline
· Slide022Presentation Shows
· Slide023Slowing Supply Flow Matters
· Slide0247 Key Pieces Saying Close to Peak Oil
· Slide025Getting it all in Proportion
· Slide026Supply Demand to 2012
· Slide027Biggest Oilfields are old, tired, and fading
· Slide028How the barrel breaks down
· Slide029Must Shed lots of Oil Demand
· Slide030My conclusions at the best.
· Slide031Technology Advancements Post US Peak
· Slide032US dominates Nuclear Power
· Slide033Need 180 MM Pounds Uranium/Year
· Slide034Uranium Prices
· Slide035Molybdenum Prices
· Slide036Gold, Silver, Platinum Price Increases
· Slide037Base Metal Price Increases
· Slide038Special Metal Price Increases
· Slide039Growth in Oil Demand = 20th Century
· Slide040Too Many Countries Now in Decline
· Slide041Soon Clash Between Demand and Supply
· Slide042When Supply Peaks, Demand Unlikely to Slow
· Slide043Will Peak Oil Surpass Global Warming?
· Slide044Major Oil Company Production Flat
· Slide045Summary of World Oil Production
· Slide046Summary Oil Production
· Slide047ASPO Importer / Exporter Talks
· Slide048Top Five Net Oil Exporters
· Slide049Top Five Production Consumption
· Slide050Top Five Exports
· Slide051Top Five Net Exports, US Imports
· Slide052Energy Sustainability Delemma
· Slide053World Primary Energy Consumption
· Slide054Population, Per Capita, Source
· Slide055Canadian Gas Deliverability Forecast
· Slide056Summary
· Slide057Summary Continued
· Slide058Energy Consumption Cannot Exceed Energy Supply
· Slide059Status of North Ghawar
· Slide060OPEC Production and Rig Counts
· Slide061Oil Exported
· Slide062Map of Ghawar
· Slide063Saturation Plot
· Slide064Key Take Aways
· Slide065ASPO Transportation
· Slide066Aviation and Peak Oil
· Slide067Optimistic and Pessimistic Peak Oil Forecast
· Slide068Implications for Aviation Industry
· Slide069Implications for Travel-Dependent Sectors
· Slide070Key is GDP
· Slide071Aviation Conclusions
· Slide072US Oil Demand by Sector
· Slide073Swiss Oil Use 1/400th USA Oil Use
· Slide074What Developing Nation Built Rail?
· Slide075Automobile History
· Slide076Hybrid Vehicle Sales
· Slide077ASPO Urban Planning Talks
· Slide078Portland Peak Oil Task Force Report
· Slide079Impact Pathways
· Slide080#1: Reduce Oil & Gas 50% in 25 Years
· Slide081#2: Inform Citizens
· Slide082#3: Engage Civic Leadership
· Slide083#4 Land Use Patterns
· Slide084#5 Smart Infrastructure Investments
· Slide085#6 Encourage Efficient and Renewable Transportation Choices
· Slide086#7: Expand Energy Efficiency Programs
· Slide087#8 Preserve Local Food Production Capability
· Slide088#8 Preserve Local Food Production Capability +
· Slide089#9: Promote Sustainable Business Opportunities
· Slide090#10 Preserve Safety Net to Protect Vulnerable
· Slide091#10: Preserve Safety Net Protect Vulnerable +
· Slide092#11: Emergency Planning
· Slide093Visit Oregon (while there’s still oil)
· Slide094The Transformation Problem
· Slide095The Places We Used To Go
· Slide096Complexity
· Slide097Adaptation
· Slide098Future of Residential Developments
· Slide099Major World Oil Supply Disruptions
· Slide100Next Steps
· Slide101ASPO Financial Planning Talks
· Slide102Timing – Does It Matter?
· Slide103Petroleum Price Trends
· Slide104Petroleum Black Swan Events
· Slide105Who will Spend the $20 Trillion Needed?
· Slide106Forces Causing Pressure to Change
· Slide107Japan Energy Mix
· Slide108Characteristics of the Wonder Fuel
· Slide109Energy to Make the GDP Dollar
· Slide110A Sage Prophecy
· Slide111Price Rationing of Peak Oil
· Slide112History and Future of the Oil Business
· Slide113World Crude Production
· Slide114World Petroleum Production
· Slide115ASPO Climate Impact Talks
· Slide116Simulated Temperature Rising
· Slide117Traditional Energy Sources More Expensive
· Slide118Transportation More Expensive
· Slide119Availability of Products and Services Cut
· Slide120Projected CO2 Peak Oil Plateau
· Slide121Results Summary
· Slide122Conclusions Implications
· Slide123Broad Policy Recommendations
· Slide124ASPO Alternative Energy Talks
· Slide125Key Nuclear Power Questions
· Slide126Sources of U.S. Electricity
· Slide127How much land will we need?
· Slide128Some Remarks
· Slide129U.S. Corn Ethanol Statistics
· Slide130U.S. and Brazil
· Slide131How effective will the cellulosic ethanol program be
· Slide132ASPO Recovery Growth Talks
· Slide133Imminent or Delayed Peakists
· Slide134Ultimate World Oil Potential
· Slide135Ultimate World Oil with only Futures
· Slide136Immiment Peakists View of the World
· Slide137Delayed Peakists View of the World
· Slide138What is Recovery Growth
· Slide139What is Recovery Growth 2
· Slide140Why Does Recovery Growth Occur?
· Slide141World Recovery Growth Potential
· Slide142How will this growth occur?
· Slide143The transformation of the upstream disciplines and growth
· Slide144Recovery Growth and the Future of World Oil Production
· Slide145Cumulative Production
· Slide146Reserves Do Not Always Grow
· Slide147Dynamic Replenishment
· Slide148ASPO Houston 2007
· Slide149Roice’s Conclusions
· Slide150For instance, Cantarell Decline Might Bankrupt Mexico and impact Houston
· Slide151Mexican Deep Water Fields Too Far Out in Time
· Slide152Peak Delayed by Deep Water and Extending Texas Fields
· Slide153Changing Pemex’s Exploration Strategy is between Hard and Impossible
· Slide1541. Societal Reactions to Rising Oil Prices
· Slide1552. Plant Ethanol Crops on Fallow Subsidies
· Slide1563. Use Alaskan Pipelines to Generate Electricity
· Slide1574. Connect the Asia and N.A. Electric Grids
· Slide1585. Explore for Dynamically Replenishing Fields
· Slide1596. Gas HydratesGas Hydrates
· Slide1607. Build Solar Towers on Mountain Sides
· Slide1618. Tidal and River Power
· Slide1629. Redesign Cities Around People Instead of Around Cars
· Slide163The Last Few Slides Quote: Henry David Thoreau & R. Buckminster Fuller
· Slide164Henry David Thoreau, Walden
· Slide165Henry David Thoreau, Walden
· Slide166Henry David Thoreau, Walden
· Slide167Henry David Thoreau, Walden
· Slide168Henry David Thoreau, Walden
· Slide169Henry David Thoreau, Walden
· Slide170Henry David Thoreau, Walden
· Slide171R. Buckminster Fuller, Critical Path
· Slide172R. Buckminster Fuller, Critical Path
· Slide173R. Buckminster Fuller, Critical Path
· Slide174R. Buckminster Fuller, Critical Path
· Slide175R. Buckminster Fuller, Critical Path
· Slide176Thank You
· Slide177ASPO Overview Talks
· Slide178Scenarios for Mitigation Planning
· Slide179Mitigation Introduction
· Slide180Spare Capacity and Demand
· Slide181Economic and Security Implications
· Slide182DOE Mitigation Study
· Slide183Small is Huge
· Slide184Oil Supply & World GDP
· Slide185World GDP Growth & World Production
· Slide186US GDP & Oil Shortages
· Slide187Oil Shockwave
· Slide188Possible Patterns of Future Production
· Slide189The General Model
· Slide190The Limiting Case without Plateau
· Slide191Giant Oil Field Production History
· Slide192Decline Rates in Selected Giant Fields
· Slide193Oil Production in Lower 48 States
· Slide194European Oil Production
· Slide195N.A. Liquid Fuels Production
· Slide196Summary N.A. & European Production
· Slide197Forecast of Future World Oil Production
· Slide198Skrebowski, Robelius, Cera
· Slide199Characteristics of Production Forecasts
· Slide200Summary of Oil Forecasts
· Slide201World Oil Market Control Power Shift
· Slide202Difference between IOCs and NOCs
· Slide203Peak Oil & Exporter Strategies
· Slide204Oil Exporter Withholding Scenario
· Slide205IEA: There’s Trouble
· Slide206Three Planning Scenarios
· Slide207Maximum World Oil Production Scenario
· Slide208Worldwide Crash Mitigation Program
· Slide209Mitigation Starting Year of Decline
· Slide210Summary
· Slide211The Uglier It Gets
· Slide212Mega-projects Update
· Slide213Chris Skrebowski
· Slide214What is Peak Oil?
· Slide215Non-OPEC Supply Growth
· Slide216Presentation Shows
· Slide217Slowing Supply Flow Matters
· Slide2187 Key Pieces Saying Close to Peak Oil
· Slide219Getting it all in Proportion
· Slide220Could This Be Peak Flows
· Slide221OPEC 11 Crude Oil Suppliers
· Slide222Oil Companies Struggle to hold production
· Slide223Non-Geologic Threats to Supply Flow
· Slide224Economics is not working well
· Slide225How Fast is Depletion?
· Slide226Mega-Projects Database 2007
· Slide227Supply Demand to 2012
· Slide228Biggest Oilfields are old, tired, and fading
· Slide229How the barrel breaks down
· Slide230Must Shed lots of Oil Demand
· Slide231Are there realistic substitutes for oil?
· Slide232My conclusions at the best.
· Slide233China and India’s Impact on the U.S.
· Slide234China’s Share of World Mineral Production
· Slide235Technology Advancements Post US Peak
· Slide236Oil Shale
· Slide237Oil Shale at Book Cliffs
· Slide238Gas Supply to Remain Flat
· Slide239China built 117 Coal-Fired Power Plants
· Slide240US dominates Nuclear Power
· Slide241Need 180 MM Pounds Uranium/Year
· Slide242Uranium Prices
· Slide243Molybdenum Prices
· Slide244Gold, Silver, Platinum Price Increases
· Slide245Base Metal Price Increases
· Slide246Special Metal Price Increases
· Slide247Cement Markets and Shortages
· Slide248Critical Material Needed for Alternative Energy
· Slide249Impact of Raw Material Shortages
· Slide250Gauging the Risk of Peak Oil
· Slide251Optimists and Pessimists Debate
· Slide252National Petroleum Council Peak Oil
· Slide253Supply Data Points show Danger
· Slide254Demand Seems Insatiable
· Slide255Optimists Scoff at Peak Oil Risk
· Slide256Optimists work on “Above Ground” Risks
· Slide257Peak Oil May Be Past Tense
· Slide258Decline Rates Are Steep Treadmill
· Slide259Decline Rate Nightmare
· Slide260Crude Supply Not Sufficient
· Slide261Natural Gas Liquids Mysterious Growth
· Slide262Is Oil Demand Biggest “Above Ground” Risk?
· Slide263Is Growth in Oil Demand Sustainable?
· Slide264Growth in Oil Demand = 20th Century
· Slide265Oil Demand Growing Everywhere
· Slide266Oil Demand Outside OECD Growing
· Slide267OECD Demand Mixed Bag
· Slide268Recent Projected Growth
· Slide269Serious Demand Assumes Growth
· Slide270Transportation Propelling Oil Growth
· Slide271Hard to Stop Transportation Oil Growth
· Slide272Creating “Mobility” Uses More Oil
· Slide273Oil Demand Not Likely to Decline
· Slide274Demand Growth Requires Vast E&P Spending
· Slide275How Secure is Our Current Supply?
· Slide276Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Fields Declining
· Slide277Too Many Countries Now in Decline
· Slide278New Fields Since 2000 “Skimpy”
· Slide279Snapshot of Key Shrinking Discoveries
· Slide280Does the World Have a Safe Supply Cushion
· Slide281Is Ghawar RunningDry?
· Slide282Saudi’s Candor Suggests “All Is Not Well”
· Slide283Evidence Suggests Saudi Struggles to Keep Exports Flat
· Slide284Perhaps Good News is Hiding
· Slide285Soon Clash Between Demand and Supply
· Slide286Can Winter Oil Demand Be Met?
· Slide287Stress in Meeting 88 Million B/Day
· Slide288Insidious “Above Ground Risk” is Rust
· Slide289Where will Added Refinery Throughput come From?
· Slide290Oil and Gas Infrastructure Must Be Rebuilt ASAP
· Slide291Do we have Raw Resources to Rebuild?
· Slide292What happens when Demand Exceeds Supply?
· Slide293When Supply Peaks, Demand Unlikely to Slow
· Slide294Does it Matter Why Chicago Burned Down?
· Slide295Is it too late to Create Early A Warning Radar System?
· Slide296Is there Any Downside to Data Reform?
· Slide297Will Peak Oil Surpass Global Warming?
· Slide298Peak Oil Risk is Genuine
· Slide299Decreasing / Increasing Production
· Slide300UK Production History
· Slide301Oil Producing Countries Pass Peak
· Slide302Major Oil Company Production Flat
· Slide303Summary of World Oil Production
· Slide304UK & Norway Production
· Slide305North America Oil Production
· Slide306Middle East Oil Production
· Slide307Canada Oil Production
· Slide308Russia Oil Production
· Slide309Africa Oil Production
· Slide310Latin America Oil Production
· Slide311Australia Oil Production
· Slide312Alaska Oil Production
· Slide313Gulf of Mexico Oil Production
· Slide314North America Oil Production
· Slide315South America Oil Production
· Slide316Europe Oil Production
· Slide317FSU Caspian Oil Production
· Slide318Arabian Gulf Oil Production
· Slide319Africa Oil Production
· Slide320Eurasia Oil Production
· Slide321Summary Oil Production
· Slide322Simmons & Company International
· Slide323ASPO Importer / Exporter Talks
· Slide324Top Five Net Oil Exporters
· Slide325UK Production and Net Exports
· Slide326Export Land Model
· Slide327UK, Indonesial, ELM Net Exports
· Slide328Conventional Wisdom Saudi
· Slide329Constant Production vs Consumption Increases
· Slide330Saudi Production & Consumption
· Slide331Saudi Arabia Net Exports
· Slide332Russia Production Consumption
· Slide333Russia Exports
· Slide334Norway Production Consumption
· Slide335Norway Exports
· Slide336Iran Production Consumption
· Slide337Iran Exports
· Slide338UAE Production Consumption
· Slide339UAE Exports
· Slide340Top Five Production Consumption
· Slide341Top Five Exports
· Slide342Top Five Net Exports, US Imports
· Slide343Trams in San Angelo, Texas 1908
· Slide344Energy Sustainability Delemma
· Slide345World Primary Energy Consumption
· Slide346Three Economic Cases
· Slide347Growth in World Consumption
· Slide348Per Capita Primary Energy Consumption
· Slide349Population, Per Capita, Source
· Slide350Cumulative Human Oil Consumption
· Slide351Gas Consumption Three Cases
· Slide352World Gas Reserves
· Slide3532006 Gas Production Forecast
· Slide354Total Hydrocarbon Production Forecast
· Slide355North America Gas Production and Movement
· Slide356Canada’s Exploration Treadmill
· Slide357Canadian Marketable Gas Production
· Slide358Finding and Development Costs Up
· Slide359Canadian Drill Rig Count and Gas
· Slide360Canadian Gas Deliverability Forecast
· Slide361Canadian Gas Demand
· Slide362U.S. Gas Consumption
· Slide363U.S. Gas Supply Forecast
· Slide364U.S. Gas Exploration Treadmill
· Slide365U.S. Dry Gas Production
· Slide366U.S. Rig Count and Gas Production
· Slide367U.S. Gas Shortfall Forecast
· Slide368Cumulative Human Coal Consumption
· Slide369World Coal Production & Consumption
· Slide370World Hydrocarbon Consumption 2006
· Slide371World Remaining Hydrocarbon Content
· Slide372Price of Hydrocarbons in GigaJoules
· Slide373Forcast Future Coal Production
· Slide374Nuclear Fuel Supply Issue
· Slide375The Hydrocarbons We Eat
· Slide376Summary
· Slide377Summary Continued
· Slide378Energy Consumption Cannot Exceed Energy Supply
· Slide379Status of North Ghawar
· Slide380OPEC Production and Rig Counts
· Slide381Oil Exported
· Slide382Map of Ghawar
· Slide383Original Reserve Calcuations
· Slide3841980 Aramco Table
· Slide385Saturation Change
· Slide386Saturation Modeling
· Slide387Saturation Plot
· Slide388Cumulative Production
· Slide389Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Distortions
· Slide390Key Take Aways
· Slide391ASPO Transportation Talks
· Slide392Aviation and Peak Oil
· Slide393Conventional Wisdom: Rapid Aviation Growth
· Slide394Air Travel Historical and Forecast
· Slide395Will Peak Oil Destroy Aviation?
· Slide396Commercial Airlines Worried About Fuel Cost
· Slide397Aviation Fuel Costs Risen Rapidly
· Slide398Airlines Worried About Fuel Availability
· Slide399High Prices Will Not Destroy Aviation
· Slide400Fuel Costs 25%-30% Airline Costs
· Slide401Economic Effects Will Do Damage
· Slide402Two Scenarios
· Slide403Optimistic and Pessimistic Peak Oil Forecast
· Slide404Traffic, Revenues, Cargo, & Fleet
· Slide405Implications for Aviation Industry
· Slide406Implications for Travel-Dependent Sectors
· Slide407Key is GDP
· Slide408CTL Synfuel Alternative
· Slide409Synfuel Benefits
· Slide410Aviation Conclusions
· Slide411Aviation Recommendations
· Slide412US Oil Demand by Sector
· Slide413Swiss Oil Use 1/400th USA Oil Use
· Slide414ASPO Ireland Oil Supply Scenario
· Slide415What Developing Nation Built Rail?
· Slide416USA 1897-1916
· Slide417Rail Road Construction ~1900
· Slide418Sustainable Mobility and Hybrids
· Slide419Drivers for Change in Auto Industry
· Slide420Energy and Fuel Diversification
· Slide421CO2 Emissions Past and Future
· Slide422Air Quality Trends in U.S.
· Slide423Status of Hybrid Vehicles Today
· Slide424Hybrid Vehicles Available in U.S. Today
· Slide425Sustainability through Life Cycle Assessment
· Slide426Life Cycle Assessment for Prius
· Slide427Status of Plug-In Hybrid Technology
· Slide428Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) Benefits
· Slide429All Electric Range (AER) vs PHEV
· Slide430AER vs Blended System
· Slide431Hydrogen and Battery Challenges Remain
· Slide432Direction of Battery Development for Vehilcles
· Slide433PHEV Challenges
· Slide434Battery Installation Space
· Slide435Battery Issue Charging Time
· Slide436CO2 Reduction
· Slide437Hybrid and PHEV Total Emissions
· Slide438Conclusions
· Slide439Toyota’s Mission
· Slide440Automobile History
· Slide441Hybrid Vehicle Sales
· Slide442ASPO Urban Planning Talks
· Slide443Portland Peak Oil Task Force Report
· Slide444Portland Peak Oil Task Force
· Slide445Task Force Make-Up
· Slide446Task Force Process
· Slide447Four Subgroups
· Slide448Ground Rules
· Slide449Ground Rules continued
· Slide450Scenarios
· Slide451Process Determines Impacts and Recommendations
· Slide452Impact Pathways
· Slide453Key Questions Transportation & Land Use
· Slide454Key Impact Transportation and Land Use
· Slide455Key Questions Food & Agriculture
· Slide456Key Impact Food & Agriculture
· Slide457Key Question Economy Business & Jobs
· Slide458Key Impacts Economy Business & Jobs
· Slide459Key Impacts Economy Business & Jobs
· Slide460Key Impacts Economy Traded Sector
· Slide461Key Question Public & Social Services
· Slide462Key Impacts Public & Social Services
· Slide463Key Impacts Public & Social Services +
· Slide464Unresolved
· Slide465Unaddressed Issues
· Slide466Recommendations
· Slide467#1: Reduce Oil & Gas 50% in 25 Years
· Slide468#2: Inform Citizens
· Slide469#3: Engage Civic Leadership
· Slide470#4 Land Use Patterns
· Slide471#5 Smart Infrastructure Investments
· Slide472#6 Encourage Efficient and Renewable Transportation Choices
· Slide473#7: Expand Energy Efficiency Programs
· Slide474#8 Preserve Local Food Production Capability
· Slide475#8 Preserve Local Food Production Capability +
· Slide476#9: Promote Sustainable Business Opportunities
· Slide477#10 Preserve Safety Net to Protect Vulnerable
· Slide478#10: Preserve Safety Net Protect Vulnerable +
· Slide479#11: Emergency Planning
· Slide480Visit Oregon (while there’s still oil)
· Slide481Houston After Peak Oil
· Slide482Houston 2007
· Slide483Future Studies
· Slide484Agenda
· Slide485Shape of Disruptive Change
· Slide486Successive Eras
· Slide487The Transformation Problem
· Slide488The Reality of Change
· Slide489Houston Today
· Slide490Houston Strengths
· Slide491Houston Liabilities
· Slide492Benefits of Scenarios
· Slide493Scenario 2040
· Slide494Houston 2040
· Slide495Energy Stationary 2040
· Slide496Future Energy Images
· Slide497Future Energy Images +
· Slide498Future Energy Images New Devices
· Slide499Energy Mobile 2040
· Slide500Demand Efficiencies
· Slide501Transportation Efficiencies
· Slide502The Places We Used To Go
· Slide503Behavior Differences
· Slide504Elements of the Future
· Slide505Business Ventures
· Slide506Research Initiatives
· Slide507Functions of Government
· Slide508Houston Initiatives
· Slide509Complexity
· Slide510Adaptation
· Slide511Houston After Oil
· Slide512Forbes Eco Lofts
· Slide513Forbes Innovations
· Slide514Forbes
· Slide515BedZED
· Slide516BedZED Facilities Center
· Slide517BedZED Living Machine
· Slide518BedZED EV Plug-In
· Slide519Changsha Master Plan
· Slide520Changsha
· Slide521Changsha Cross Section
· Slide522SkyZED
· Slide523SkyZED Tower
· Slide524SkyZED Vertical Wind Turbines
· Slide525Dongtan China
· Slide526Dongtan Satellite View
· Slide527Dongtan Master Plan
· Slide528Dongtan Aerial View
· Slide529Future of Residential Developments
· Slide530Biochemical Industry
· Slide531Biorefined Products on the Market
· Slide532Biochemical Industry Benefits
· Slide533Biochemicals Government Forecast
· Slide534Americans Have to be Hit with a 2x4
· Slide535Major World Oil Supply Disruptions
· Slide536City Services Huntington Beach, CA
· Slide537City Services Huntington Beach, CA +
· Slide538Municipal Opportunities
· Slide539Next Steps
· Slide540Peak Oil and the Media
· Slide541Why is the media paying so little attention
· Slide542Do we really care?
· Slide543What will force a change?
· Slide544States are laboratories for energy action
· Slide545Policies, Rules, Incentives, Funding
· Slide546Renewable Portfolio Standards
· Slide547Green Building Standards
· Slide548Building Codes
· Slide549Cap and Trade
· Slide550Incentives
· Slide551Incentives +
· Slide552More Incentives
· Slide553Funding
· Slide554ASPO Financial Planning Talks
· Slide555Timing – Does It Matter?
· Slide556Strategic Perspective 21st Century Energy
· Slide557Strategic Challenges (Drivers)
· Slide558Petroleum Price Trends
· Slide559Market Appreciation of Resource Maturity
· Slide560E&P CAPEX vs Global Oil Demand
· Slide561Recent Increase in F, D, & A Costs
· Slide562Rising Resource Nationalism
· Slide563Heightened Environmental Sensitivities
· Slide564Realignment of Economic and National Security Interests
· Slide565Practical Peak Oil
· Slide566The Black Swan
· Slide567Peak Gas
· Slide568Components of U.S. Gas Supply
· Slide569Evolving U.S. Natural Gas Grid
· Slide570Petroleum Black Swan Events
· Slide571Concluding Observations
· Slide572Global Energy Demand Forecasting
· Slide573Competition for Resources
· Slide574Worldwide Oil and Gas Reserves
· Slide575Super Majors Total Upstream CAPEX vs Production
· Slide576Super Majors R&D Spending
· Slide577Who will Spend the $20 Trillion Needed?
· Slide578Beyond “A Thousand Barrels a Second”
· Slide579Edison Bulb
· Slide580Adoption of Electric Lighting N.A.
· Slide581Whaling Log
· Slide582Energy Evolution Cycle
· Slide583Forces Causing Pressure to Change
· Slide584Japan Energy Mix
· Slide585Characteristics of the Wonder Fuel
· Slide586“Not a wheel turns without petroleum”
· Slide587Traffic Congestion Houston, TX
· Slide588Urban Sprawl, Las Vegas, NV
· Slide589Vehicle Obesity
· Slide590Number of People in Perspective
· Slide591Tata Motors in India
· Slide592Advanced vs Developing Economies
· Slide593Percent Global Economy
· Slide594GDP Growth Rates
· Slide5952007 Oil Demand Growth
· Slide596Energy to Make the GDP Dollar
· Slide597A Sage Prophecy
· Slide598World Energy Mix
· Slide599China Energy Mix
· Slide600China’s Go Forward Energy Mix
· Slide601World Natural Gas Demand by Region
· Slide602Price Rationing of Peak Oil
· Slide603History and Future of the Oil Business
· Slide604World Crude Production
· Slide605World Petroleum Production
· Slide606World Crude Oil Consumption
· Slide607World Petroleum Deliveries
· Slide608World Petroleum Use By Sector
· Slide609ASPO Climate Talks Houston Conference October 17th-20th, 2007
· Slide610Hubbert’s Peak, Coal, and Climate
· Slide611Cumulative Plot for U.S. Oil
· Slide612Rate Plot for World Oil and Gas
· Slide613British Coal Production
· Slide614American Coal Production
· Slide615Coal West of the Mississippi
· Slide616Coal East of the Mississippi
· Slide617Rate Plot for China
· Slide618Rate Plot for Europe
· Slide619Rate Plot for South Asia
· Slide620Former Soviet Union
· Slide621Production Reserves for World Coal
· Slide622Alternatives to Fossil Fuels
· Slide623Simulated Temperature Rising
· Slide624Proposal Fossil-Fuel Preserves
· Slide625Peak Oil, Global Climate Change, and the Planner’s Response
· Slide626Financial Planning Principles
· Slide627Financial Planning Responses
· Slide628Disruption and New Rules at All Levels
· Slide629Traditional Energy Sources More Expensive
· Slide630Transportation More Expensive
· Slide631Availability of Products and Services Cut
· Slide632Investment Policy Statement Process
· Slide633“Worldview Two” Portfolio
· Slide634“Worldview Two” Portfolio Content
· Slide635Conclusion
· Slide636Implications of “Peak Oil” for Atmospheric CO2 and Climate
· Slide637Goals / Motivation
· Slide638Anthropogenic GHG Changes
· Slide639Past Sea Level and Temperatures
· Slide640Assumed Resource Supplies
· Slide641Overview of Emissions Scenarios
· Slide642Business as Usual Scenario
· Slide643Coal Phase-Out Scenario
· Slide644Alternative Peak Oil Trajectory
· Slide645Fast Use Oil Scenario
· Slide646Les Oil Reserves Scenario
· Slide647Peak Oil Plateau Scenario
· Slide648Comparison with SRES Scenarios
· Slide649CO2 Time Series Calculation
· Slide650Calculated CO2 vs Data
· Slide651Projected CO2 Business as Usual
· Slide652Projected CO2 Coal Phase Out
· Slide653Projected CO2 Fast Oil Use
· Slide654Project CO2 Less Oil Reserves
· Slide655Projected CO2 Peak Oil Plateau
· Slide656Results Summary
· Slide657Conclusions Implications
· Slide658Broad Policy Recommendations
· Slide659Acknowledgements
· Slide660Comments on Climate Change and E85
· Slide661ASPO Alternative Energy Talks
· Slide662US Commercial Nuclear Power Status
· Slide663Key Nuclear Power Questions
· Slide664Global Oil Production Peaking
· Slide665Nuclear Power Dangerous
· Slide666Nuclear Power Fantastic Way to Power a Navy
· Slide667U.S. San Francisco Mishap and Power
· Slide668Scale Comparisons Nuclear to Oil
· Slide669Sources of U.S. Electricity
· Slide670U.S. Nuclear Solid Performance
· Slide671U.S. Electrical Costs
· Slide672Sustained Reliability U.S. Nuclear Plants
· Slide673Nuclear Holds 20% Market Share
· Slide674Outlook without New Nuclear Power Plants
· Slide675Investing Nuclear vs Renewables
· Slide676Planned New Nuclear Plants
· Slide677Spent Nuclear Fuel Temporary Storage
· Slide678Spent Nuclear Fuel in Perspective
· Slide679How Good is our bet on Biofuels?
· Slide680U.S. Corn Ethanol Production
· Slide681Land Needed to Meet U.S. Gasoline Needs with Ethonal
· Slide682Energy Metric
· Slide683Energy Balance for Corn Ethanol
· Slide684Energy Balance for Corn Ethanol +
· Slide685GHG Emissions for Corn Ethanol
· Slide686Cellulosic EthanolProduction
· Slide687Energy Balance for Switchgrass
· Slide688Energy Balance for Switchgrass +
· Slide689Land Required with Cellulosic Ethanol
· Slide690How much land will we need?
· Slide691Some Remarks
· Slide692U.S. Corn Ethanol Statistics
· Slide693U.S. and Brazil
· Slide694How effective will the cellulosic ethanol program be
· Slide695ASPO Recovery Growth Talks
· Slide696Taking Recovery Growth Seriously
· Slide697What kind of Peakists are we?
· Slide698Imminent or Delayed Peakists
· Slide699Bid Deal is Manageable Transition
· Slide700Why Peakists Differ?
· Slide701Ultimate World Oil Potential
· Slide702Ultimate World Oil with only Futures
· Slide703Why do world oil assessments differ?
· Slide704Immiment Peakists View of the World
· Slide705Delayed Peakists View of the World
· Slide706What is Recovery Growth
· Slide707What is Recovery Growth 2
· Slide708Why Does Recovery Growth Occur?
· Slide709World Recovery Growth Potential
· Slide710How will this growth occur?
· Slide711The transformation of the upstream disciplines and growth
· Slide712Recovery Growth and the Future of World Oil Production
· Slide713Future World Oil Final Constrained Projections
· Slide714Final Projections: Cumulative Production and Committed Resources
· Slide715Critiques of Recovery Growth
· Slide716Critiques of Recovery Growth 2
· Slide717Critiques of Recovery Growth 3
· Slide718Taking Recovery Growth Seriously
· Slide719The Devil is in the Lack of Data
· Slide720Status of the Peak Oil Message
· Slide721Status of the Peak Oil Message
· Slide722Deriving the Supply Curve
· Slide723Supply Forecast Background
· Slide724Supply Forecast Background 2
· Slide725Supply Forecast Background 3
· Slide726Supply Background Forecast 4
· Slide727Potential for Reserves Growth
· Slide728Differences in Reserves Growth Estimates
· Slide729Reserves Do Not Always Grow
· Slide730How Reserves are Estimated
· Slide731Why Might Resource Estimates Change?
· Slide732Why might Resource Estimates Change? 2
· Slide733Why might Resource Factor Estimates Change?
· Slide734Why might Resource Factor Estimates Change? 2
· Slide735CO2 and EOR
· Slide736CO2 Injection as an EOR Process
· Slide737CP2 Sesquestration
· Slide738Scope for application of Reserve Growth Techniques
· Slide739Scope for application of Reserves Growth Techniques 2
· Slide740Can Recovery Efficiency Ever Reach 100%
· Slide741Can Recovery Efficiency Ever Reach 100%? 2
· Slide742A Better Estimate of Potential for Reserves Growth
· Slide743Incremental Production Due to Reserves Growth
· Slide744Reserves Growth: Impact of New Technology
· Slide745Reserves Growth: Impact of New Technology 2
· Slide746Future Supply – Even With Reserves Growth
· Slide747Future Supply – Even With Reserves Growth 2
· Slide748Future Supply – Even With Reserves Growth 3
· Slide749Reserves Growth – Take Home Message
· Slide750Reserves Growth – Take Home Message 2
· Slide751We Don’t Always Get It Right
· Slide752Dynamic Replenishment
· Slide753ASPO Houston 2007
· Slide754Energy and Humanity
· Slide755Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources
· Slide756The Hydrocarbon Cycle
· Slide757EI-330 Field
· Slide758Some Oil & Gas Fields Dynamically Replenish
· Slide759Replenishment ties to Seal and Source
· Slide760Shallow Producing Zones
· Slide761Deeper Producing Zones
· Slide762Temperature Increases Above Geopressure Zones
· Slide763Offshore Texas Oil & Gas Fields
· Slide764Big Fields are Overpressured
· Slide765Dynamic Pressure Seals
· Slide766Geopressure Seals
· Slide767Fluid Flow Model
· Slide768Texas Onshore Example
· Slide769Louisiana Offshore Example
· Slide770Colorado County Example
· Slide771Colorado County Geopressure Cells
· Slide772Gas Hydrates, Volcanics, and Spatial Resume
· Slide773Cantarell Decline Might Bankrupt Mexico
· Slide774Mexican Deep Water Too Far Out in Time
· Slide775Peak Delayed by Deep Water and Texas Extensions
· Slide776ASPO Houston 2007

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